The past months have seen a flurry of energy studies from various corners. The aim, of course, is to influence ongoing policy debate as the EU retunes its energy strategy for 2020 and commences elaborating a long-term strategy for 2050. While appearing theoretical, and long-term, the studies do point clearly to the coming renewables wave. This will have a major influence on investments, especially given the 40-50-year lifetime of larger fossil fuel power stations.

Early in July, the European Commission finally closed its consultation of stakeholders on the 2010-2020 strategy, set to be endorsed by the European Council, in March 2011. The 2010-2020 strategy should fine-tune the first EU ‘Energy action plan’, endorsed by the European Council in March 2007. This latter set the oft-mentioned ‘20-20-20’ targets for 2020. An increase to 20% in the share of renewables in final energy consumption was accompanied by a 20% cut in energy consumption. Finally, a 20% cut was programmed for emissions of greenhouse gases compared with 1990 levels.

POWER CHOICES

First off the mark, in November 2009, was the electricity association Eurelectric (see Europolitics3860). Their ‘Power choices’ scenario traced a road map for emission reductions driven by carbon prices. The electricity association points to its “ambitious” scenario with power sector CO ₂ emissions falling by 90%. This is a drop from 1,423 Mt CO ₂ to just 128 Mt by 2050. Total economy CO ₂ reductions amount to 75% versus 1990 levels by 2050.

In December 2009, Friends of the Earth Europe (FoEE), together with the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), published a study arguing that Europe could cut domestic emissions by 40% in 2020. By 2050, cuts could reach 90%, compared to 1990 levels. RES could reach 90% by 2050. According to the report, the emissions cuts proposed were the minimum that science says are needed from rich countries in order to avert a climate catastrophe.

The European Climate Foundation (ECF) opted for a 80% renewables scenario in its April 2010 study (3957). The ECF also argued that capital expenditure on energy infrastructure will need to double in the next 15 years to deliver a zero-carbon power sector by 2050. But if this were done, the overall energy bill for the economy would head downward by 2020.

Just days after the study by the ECF, the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC) launched its own study entitled ‘RE-thinking 2050’. It argued that the EU can move to a system based on 100% renewable energy supply for electricity, heating and cooling as well as transport. EREC not only believes that a 100% renewable energy system is feasible for the EU, but that it is the only sustainable option in economic, environmental and social terms (3959).

The latest study was recently published by Greenpeace. The ‘Energy Revolution’ postulates that renewable energy can cover 92% of the EU’s total energy use and 97% of electricity by 2050, effectively moving Europe towards a 100% renewable energy supply. This would require substantial energy savings through efficiency technologies, improved public transport systems and a shift of freight transport from road to rail. Smart building design, renewable heating technologies and using renewables electricity for industrial processes would replace fossil fuels in the heating sector. Additionally, Greenpeace calls for the “swift” phase-out of nuclear and coal power production, the uptake of electric vehicles and implementation of smart and super grids.

The Greenpeace study dangles the prospect of €2.65 trillion in fuel cost savings by 2050. This equates to €132 billion in annual electricity supply cost savings in 2050 and €19 billion average annual savings between 2007 and 2050 (including fuel cost savings and price of investment). The price to be paid: €1.85 trillion extra investment between 2007 and 2050, compared to the ‘business as usual’ scenario. In total, there would be 940,000 new ‘green’ jobs in 2020 and 1.2 million in 2030.

OETTINGER: FEASIBLE

Interestingly, Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger was present at the launch of the Greenpeace-EREC study. He hinted that the Commission is examining the feasibility of a 100% renewables scenario for 2050. Oettinger also backed the idea of Europe-wide feed-in tariffs for renewables. Oettinger went as far as to say that a carbon-free energy system, without nuclear power, is feasible in a “technical” and “financial” sense. “Whether it’s possible in a political sense? Let’s wait and see.”

Background

The studies differ markedly when it comes to the share of renewables in 2050. Whilst all low-emission scenarios assume a growing electricity use, the ‘Energy Revolution’ (Greenpeace) projects nearly full renewable electricity supply by 2050 with 97% renewable energy share. Friends of the Earth opts for 90%. The European Climate Foundation only postulates a 80% renewable share as well as nuclear at 10%. Fossil fuels, with carbon capture and storage, would provide the remaining 10% with with coal and gas each proffering 5% under ECF projections.