Meeting on 23 November in Brussels, the EU’s environment ministers are not expected to adopt conclusions or a formal decision for the final coordination session ahead of the Copenhagen climate conference (7-18 December). However, “the European Union must clarify its intentions soon, in particular concerning the financial allocation it intends to put on the table to help the developing countries adapt to climate change,” declared Yvo de Boer, executive director of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, who was invited by the Swedish EU Presidency to present his own progress report on the negotiations. He expects such clarification not only of the EU but also of all the countries, both industrialised and developing.

Yvo de Boer does not doubt that “Copenhagen will end in success”. However, “important points still have to be settled and I am sure they can be. I think that the EU has a crucial role to play”. He justifies his optimism on the one hand by the promises made recently by Japan, Brazil, South Korea and Russia, which raised their emissions reduction targets, and on the other by the growing number of heads of state and government (at least 65) who will be present in Copenhagen. “One hundred and one of them pledged at the World Climate Summit in New York in September 2009 to ensure that an agreement is concluded in Copenhagen: I expect them to keep their word and to make a reality of this commitment,” insisted de Boer. He added: “The key question now is the United States, because everyone is ready”.

“A LEGAL DOCUMENT”

As to the nature of the agreement in Copenhagen, de Boer expects “a set of decisions that will subsequently be finalised in a legal document”. The decisions will have to cover a number of important points, he continued: clear and precise commitments for the reduction of emissions by industrialised countries; precise reduction targets per country by 2020; equally precise commitments by the developing countries on measures to stem growth of their emissions; clarification of the intentions of the industrialised countries in terms of short and long-term financing of aid to the developing countries. There is also a need for a guaranteed, clear and foreseeable financial commitment and an initial outlay of US$10 billion a year for immediate action for the period 2010-2012 (equivalent more or less to €7 billion advanced by the EU). It must be defined in terms of aid for adaptation, mobilisation of technologies and capacity building. The Copenhagen “package” will also have to include a forest component with decisions on international cooperation to combat deforestation. Lastly, the governments will have to adopt a tight calendar for finalising the agreement in a legal text.

The EU, insisted the UN negotiator, must be clearer on the conditions under which it will move from a 20% target to a 30% target for emissions reduction and on its financing intentions. Its leaders “must advance a precise figure no later than the EU summit [on 10-11 December]: the world is waiting for a clear financial commitment,” stressed de Boer. Europe must also clarify the role it sees for the carbon market and how forests can be better taken into account. As for the “comparability” of efforts, a point on which the EU insists (targeting the United States), de Boer noted that US emissions are presently 14% above the 1990 level. If it confirms its proposal for a 17% to 20% reduction from 2005 levels by 2020, that would amount to a 20% reduction in ten years (2010-2020). “That’s a very ambitious objective in itself,” he said.

After the morning’s presentations, the ministers continued their debate on the EU’s negotiation strategy and the adjustment of positions needed, a discussion that was still in progress as this issue of Europoliticswent to press.