Greek Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou has blamed his predecessors and the recession for discrepancies in his country’s deficit data, which have seen the budget gap triple since last year.

He was pulled up by his EU counterparts in the Eurogroup, on 19 October, after the country’s new Socialist government admitted the deficit could shoot up to 12.5% of GDP this year, from 3.7% last year. The European Commission’s spring forecast - based on figures that EU governments submit to Eurostat twice yearly - estimates a 2009 deficit of 5.1% of GDP, less than half the actual figure.

Eurogroup head and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said he was “deeply impressed by the divergence between old and new figures”. This is not the first time the Greek authorities have had to excuse themselves for botching their sums. In 2003, the deficit spiralled from below 1% to 3.2% of GDP, therefore breaching the EU’s 3% ceiling under the Stability and Growth Pact.

Juncker told journalists after the Eurogroup meeting, “It has happened several times in the past and if it happens once more in the future we are putting at risk the credibility of all the figures and all the framework. The game is over - we need serious statistics”.

Papaconstantinou, who joined the Greek government after the Socialists (PASOK) won early elections, on 4 October, said the “statistical errors” were partly down to the previous government’s non-reporting of outstanding state debt on supplies of certain goods and services. He also blamed the worse than expected economic situation and miscalculation of tax revenues for the shortfall.

Greece has seen a 1.5% fall in GDP this year, which is six basis points worse than expected, due mainly to investment and tourist receipts plummeting.

Greece is currently being disciplined under the corrective arm of the Stability and Growth Pact - along with eight other countries - for breaching the 3% deficit limit in 2008. A total of 20 EU member states are currently in breach of the limit. The Commission and Council have recommended that Greece begin to shave expenditure this year, getting down to 3% by 2010.

However, Papaconstantinou insists his government will stick to its commitments to fund jobs, education and health, which will cost around 1% of GDP this year. He said the country is unlikely to get its deficit below the pact’s limits before 2014.

The Greek government will now have to send a letter to the Commission detailing what happened over the last six months, which will kick off a series of talks between the two sides.

Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquín Almunia says that Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, could also be overhauled so that it can foresee similar problems in the future. “Eurostat does not have 100% in its hands the instruments to avoid these situations,” he said after the Eurogroup meeting. “We want to know what has happened why it has happened.”