Names of future commissioners are being bandied around or confirmed, but the image of the next European Commission has never been more difficult to project. As well as having to find places for 27 commissioners – far more complicated than when there were just 12 or 15 member states - everything will depend on the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty. If and when Czech President Václav Klaus decides to sign it, two prestigious diplomatic posts will be created: the president of the European Council for two and a half years, and the high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. Names for these positions are already circulating and the two appointments will certainly have an impact on the identity and responsibilities of several future members of the Commission. More will be known at the European Council, on 29-30 October in Brussels. In the meantime, Europoliticsis providing a review of the names of candidate or likely commissioners.

AT - Austria: The most frequently mentioned name is that of former Conservative Vice-Chancellor Wilhelm Molterer. He has held several ministerial posts and his versatility could prove useful to Austria in terms of the portfolios in which it is interested (environment, agriculture, budget). Mention has also been made of Johannes Hahn, minister for science and research. Having withdrawn her candidacy for the top job at UNESCO, Benita Ferrero-Waldner would certainly have liked to extend her time in Brussels, but she is not backed by her government. Nevertheless, “as regards my future, the dice has not yet been cast”, she recently remarked. The country’s former Foreign Minister, Ursula Plassnik, is another potential candidate, although she is understood to be in the race for the EU high representative post.

BE - Belgium: Karel De Gucht, who replaced Louis Michel, does not intend to outstay his welcome in the department of Development and Humanitarian Aid. Belgium would like to see him move to energy or trade.

BG - Bulgaria: Although not official, the re-appointment of Bulgarian Commissioner Meglena Kuneva is increasingly unlikely. The governing centre-right Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party, which won 40% of the vote, is not keen on her and will probably not choose her since she comes from the National Movement for Stability and Progress (NDSV), which is not part of the current government. A name circulating in Bulgarian corridors is that of the current Foreign Minister, Rumiana Jeleva.

CZ - Czech Republic: While concerns in Brussels are mainly concentrated on the ongoing problems with the president of the Czech Republic over the signature of the Lisbon Treaty, there is no certainty on the next Czech commissioner, although a decision is due before the European Council of 29-30 October. The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) wants to delegate the former Minister for European Affairs, Alexandr Vondra, while the other main political group, the Social Democratic Party (CSSD), wants to keep the current Employment Commissioner, Vladimir Spidla. Pavel Svoboda is the Christian Democrats’ candidate, but he is an unlikely bet since it is only a small party. The Czech Communist Party’s candidate is Vladimir Remek, currently an MEP and the only Czech astronaut, but nor does he stand much of a chance of becoming commissioner. Vondra, although from a big political group, faces a great deal of opposition from the CSSD, which appears to be stronger than the ODS opposition to Spidla. Spidla is seen by many Czechs as a ‘weak candidate’ who does not want to change his portfolio (while the Czech government repeats that it wants to have an important policy field, such as energy or transport), but he could emerge a serious contender.

CY - Cyprus:The re-appointment of Health Commissioner Androulla Vassiliou (Liberal, age 66) depends on the preference of the new president of the Commission and the president of Cyprus. She was appointed to replace Markos Kyprianou, who returned to the national government as foreign minister.

DE - Germany: The post of commissioner is part of the coalition contract under negotiation in Berlin between the winning parties of the elections of 27 September, namely the Conservatives from the CDU-CSU Union and FDP Liberals. For the time being, it appears that no names have yet been discussed. If the post goes to the CDU, it would be the first time it had had a commissioner for 20 years. Several names have been cited, such as Interior Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, Secretary of State Peter Hintze or even MEP Elmar Brok. If the post goes to the FDP, the most frequently cited name is that of MEP Silvana Koch-Mehrin. The new German government should target an economic portfolio, such as financial services.

DK - Denmark: Mariann Fischer Boel, the current agriculture commissioner, announced recently that she would retire from politics. Connie Hedegaard, the country’s climate and energy minister, is tipped as the favourite to replace her in Brussels, especially since the Danish Foreign Minister, Per Stig Moller, suggested she could become the first occupant of the new climate change and energy portfolio that Commission President José Manuel Barroso is considering creating. Other possibilities are Agriculture and Fisheries Minister Eva Kjer Hansen and Education Minister and former MEP Bertel Haarder.

EE - Estonia: Vice-President Siim Kallas, responsible for administrative affairs, audit and anti-fraud, does not need to worry: he is now certain to remain within the Commission for five more years. In mid-September, he received the full support of his government, whereas one of the two governing coalition parties, Union of Pro Patria and Res Publica, had originally opposed his renomination. The Reform Party of current Prime Minister Andrus Ansip (centre-right Liberal) has, on the other hand, always supported Kallas, its founder, who is now 61 years of age. He is said to be interested in important portfolios, such as the internal market, competition or economic and monetary affairs. They are already highly coveted and it is unlikely that he will obtain them. He could keep his dossiers, continuing to manage the controversial topic of the public register of interest representatives based in Brussels, whose review will soon take place.

EL - Greece:The legislative elections of 4 October upset all forecasts and uncertainty now reigns over the name of the future Greek commissioner. Stavros Dimas, the current environment commissioner, had in fact been proposed by the previous government. But now that the Socialist PASOK party is in power, a reversal announced by the party’s victory in the June European elections, the re-election of the latter has been called into question. The name of the candidate can be expected in the near future. Two possibilities are Vasso Papandreou and Anna Diamantopoulou. Both are former social affairs commissioners, but may prefer a ministerial position in Athens if that is possible.

ES - Spain:It is no secret that current Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquín Almunia is keen to keep his job, telling the Spanish online news agency ABCrecently that he expects and would like it. His Prime Minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, said as early as last April that he supports Almunia’s bid, and in Sweden in October the country’s Finance Minister, Elena Salgado, ruled out the possibility of any other nominations. What is up for debate is his portfolio - a rejig has been mooted, splitting economic from monetary affairs - although those in the know are putting their money on him keeping the same job. A lot will depend on what happens when Javier Solana, the EU’s Spanish foreign policy chief, steps down. When the Lisbon Treaty takes effect, Solana’s replacement will double as Barroso’s deputy.

FI - Finland:Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn is supported by the government for a second mandate. It remains to be seen for which position, though. Finland would be keen on an economic portfolio, but Rehn has also shown interest in the future position of high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, who will also be vice-president of the Commission. Helsinki would readily take the energy or monetary affairs portfolios.

FR - France: Paris continues to deny rumours that it has its eyes set on either of the new Lisbon Treaty posts: European Council presidency and the high representative for foreign affairs and security policy. This time France wants the internal market. This is, in any case, what was recently declared by a senior French official quoted by AFP,denying any move by France to succeed Javier Solana as EU high representative. France also has its own natural candidate in the form of Michel Barnier, currently an EPP MEP and former minister of agriculture and fisheries. Barnier held the position of regional policy commissioner, from 1999 to 2004. In Brussels, however, preference is being given to the current Economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, a perfect English speaker with a highly international profile, given her previous career spanning 25 years as a lawyer within one of the world’s leading law firms, Baker & McKenzie of the US.

HU - Hungary: A question mark hangs over whether sitting Taxation Commissioner László Kovács, who is known to be keen to stay on in Brussels, would be able to swing a substantial portfolio for Hungary in a new Commission. His comments on his future have been cryptic of late, and sources confirm that Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai is more likely to throw his weight behind economist and EBRD Director László Andor, an unknown but much less divisive candidate. He may be hoping that Andor will secure Hungary a regional portfolio, and choosing an outsider could avoid a repeat of the mess in 2004, when MEPs denied Kovács the energy post. As for the other names in the pot, Foreign Ministry State Secretary Gábor Iván is effectively out of the race, since insiders say he is being groomed to take over as Hungary’s EU ambassador before the country’s Presidency in 2011. Former Socialist Premier Ferenc Gyurcsány is firmly off the list, as is the current Foreign Minister, Péter Balázs.

IE - Ireland: Now that the worrisome Lisbon question has been settled, the race to choose Charlie McCreevy’s successor has begun. Pat Cox, the former European Parliament president and ally of the governing Fianna Fáil party, remains a possibility. But overtaking him is second-time MEP Pat ‘the Cope’ Gallagher, who would ensure Fianna Fáil a voice in Europe even if the government falls. John Bruton, the EU’s ambassador to the US, looks likely to finish last, as Taoiseach Brian Cowen will be loath to send an opposition party member to Brussels. Coming up on the inside is Health Minister Mary Harney. A longtime Fianna Fáil ally, she would bump up numbers in Barroso’s drive for gender balance, but the move would force a risky by-election in her Dublin constituency. There is an outside chance at best for former MEP Eoin Ryan and current Europe Minister Dick Roche (whose appointment would also cause a by-election). Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, Ireland’s representative on the EU Court of Auditors, is increasingly coming into the frame since she is a former Fianna Fail minister and her appointment would not necessitate a by-election.

IT - Italy:In June 2009, at the close of the European Council, the head of the Italian government, Silvio Berlusconi, indicated that Antonio Tajani, the current transport commissioner, would remain in the next Commission. A former MEP (EPP) and ally of Berlusconi’s (with whom he founded Forza Italia in 1994), Tajani acquired his post in June 2008, after the departure to the Italian government of Franco Frattini, then the commissioner for justice, freedom and security. At the same European Council, the Italian prime minister also implied that he would demand a “more substantial” portfolio than transport, such as a return to justice, freedom and security. Since then, Berlusconi has also referred to the position of EU high representative. Would this be for Franco Frattini or for Mario Mauro, deprived of the presidency of the European Parliament?

LT - Lithuania: Algirdas Semeta officially took over the budget and financial programming portfolio in September, replacing Dalia Grybauskaité, now her country’s president, until the end of the current Commission’s mandate. A former finance minister, this 47-year old economist (Christian Democrat) could remain as Lithuania’s candidate in the next executive team. The government would even like him to keep his portfolio, but nothing is certain since the Polish candidate, Janusz Lewandowski, a former chairman of the European Parliament’s Budget Committee and a current MEP (EPP), has every chance of obtaining the post in his place. Semeta’s first steps in Brussels, in the midst of negotiations on the 2010 budget in the context of the global economic crisis, in any case seduced MEPs. During his hearing at the European Parliament, on 1 September, he himself tackled the general review of the EU budget, underlining the historic challenge that this issue would represent over the coming years.

LU - Luxembourg: The name of the Luxembourg commissioner has been known since 7 July, the day on which Viviane Reding, the current commissioner for information society and media, was officially appointed by her country to undertake a third European mandate. This former journalist, aged 58, will therefore be reunited with President José Manuel Barroso and the college, over which she triumphed with her proposal to cap rates on cross-border mobile phone calls and SMS messages. For the time being, Reding is busy helping the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament. She has also been linked to the competition post, but large countries are, of course, coveting this. She could return to telecoms - as expected by the sector, but not without reticence. However, Reding could also - in passing - take on responsibility for intellectual property, an area in which she would like to be involved, but which is today reserved for the internal market commissioner. It remains to be seen what will become of the internal market portfolio, knowing that France is in line to obtain it, or at least to steer financial services.

LV - Latvia: Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs, 52, was reappointed, on 13 October, by his government. It hopes that the experienced Piebalgs will retain the all-important energy post, rather than be relegated to the depths of education, culture or multilingualism. After meeting the current Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis, Piebalgs told local radio that running for a second term as commissioner is now the best contribution he can make for his country.

MT - Malta: The government is still involved in major negotiations on the name of its future commissioner, even if Joe Borg, the current commissioner for fisheries and maritime affairs, has clearly stated his desire to remain for a second mandate.

NL - Netherlands: Rumours about the interest from Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende in the new job of Council president are officially being denied by the authorities, but they are persistent in the Dutch media. Whatever may come out of that, it is, unofficially, clear that Neelie Kroes will not come back to the Commission as she is a Liberal (VVD), and they are not part of the Christian Democrats (CDA) and Labour Party (PvdA) governing coalition. The Netherlands, which wants to have the heaviest portfolio possible, will not obtain the competition portfolio again since the new director-general is Dutch and two nationals from the same country rarely work together at such a high level. The CDA will likely be the one that sends a commissioner. Names being whispered in corridors are Ernst Hirsch Ballin, the current minister for justice (CDA), Yvonne van Rooy, current chair of the University of Tilburg and former deputy minister for economic affairs (CDA), Cees Veermans, former minister for agriculture (CDA) and Maria van der Hoeven, the current minister for economic affairs. The successful candidate will also depend on the portfolio the Netherlands will receive.

PL - Poland: The name most frequently mentioned is that of Janusz Lewandowski, a re-elected MEP (EPP) favoured by Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister. In the 1990s, this economist held the position of minister responsible for privatisation in the Polish government. His experience would be suited to an economic post, as demanded by Poland (economic and monetary affairs, internal market or industry). But nothing is official yet and, in Poland, Tusk’s entourage is restating that everything will depend on the portfolio. Before the holidays, the head of Tusk’s cabinet was still mentioning the possibility of Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, another influential figure from the Civic Platform, also re-elected to the European Parliament, and even Danuta Hübner, former regional policy commissioner and current chairwoman of the European Parliament’s Regional Development Committee.

PT - Portugal:Chosen by the European Council and confirmed by the European Parliament, Conservative José Manuel Barroso has been reappointed for five years as Commission president.

RO - Romania: The Romanian government has designated former Agriculture Minister Dacian Ciolos as its official candidate. After two years with the non-descript post of multilingualism, Romania clearly wants something more substantial. The 40-year-old Ciolos, with a degree in horticulture, is not only married to a French woman, he is also a friend of former French Agriculture Minister Michel Barnier. Ciolos has apparently been studying for a doctorate in agronomics at Montpellier’s ENSAM institute in France since 2000.

SI - Slovenia:Research Commissioner Janez Potocnik has been nominated for a second mandate by the government. He would either like to keep the same portfolio, or move to another economic-related area, given his economic background.

SK - Slovakia:Maros Sefcovic, Slovakia’s former permanent representative to the EU who replaced his compatriot, Jan Figel, earlier this year, is expected to stay on as Slovak commissioner. That is certainly his prime minister’s wish and it is understood he is interested in either the energy or transport portfolios.

SV - Sweden: The Vice-President responsible for institutional relations and communication strategy, Margot Wallström, is packing her bags. After two mandates at the Commission (the first from 1999 to 2004 in environment under the Prodi team), this 55-year-old Social Democrat intends to “do something else”. She considers, nevertheless, that the creation of a portfolio “for communication and citizens” would send a positive message to Europeans in the current context. For now, the Swedish centre-right government - presiding over the EU until 31 December - will have to appoint its candidate. Former ALDE MEP and current European Affairs Minister Cecilia Malmström would have made a good candidate, but that could mean leaving her post before the end of the Presidency, which appears unlikely. The same goes for Foreign Affairs Minister Carl Bildt (Moderates/EPP), who has declared that he is not a candidate. Another name doing the rounds is that of Gunilla Carlsson, minister for international development cooperation, in line for the post of development commissioner.

UK - United Kingdom:The identity, and portfolio, of the British member is unlikely to become clear before a decision is taken on the EU’s first full-time president. If former Premier Tony Blair is appointed, the UK could not reasonably expect a heavy hitting post in the Commission – a factor that could deter possible candidates. If he is unsuccessful, the UK would look for strong compensation. Shriti Vadera, a former advisor to Prime Minister Gordon Brown and an ex-business minister, is frequently mentioned, but she has just embarked on a new one-year role with the G20, which she is keen to honour. She may well come back into the frame, especially if final ratification of the Lisbon Treaty is delayed. However, that is now unlikely. Given Barroso’s determination to keep the female count up in the next Commission, the incumbent Baroness Ashton’s chances are improving. Other possibles, such as Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt, appear to be moving backwards in the field.

Seeking N°1 and N°2

At present, the UK’s Tony Blair, supported by his government and until now by France, is still the favourite in the race for the position of permanent president of the European Council who, according to the Lisbon Treaty, will be responsible for representing Europe for two and a half years. However, even without being an official candidate, the former Labour prime minister is already suffering as the result of reluctance by several countries, such as Austria, Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands. Also mentioned for the same post is the current Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Jan Peter Balkenende. Speculation also surrounds other potential presidential candidates, in particular Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy, former head of the Finnish government Matti Vanhanen, former Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel and even Mary Robinson, Ireland’s first female president from 1990 to 1997. For the post of high representative, the most frequently cited name is that of Carl Bildt, Sweden’s current foreign affairs minister. Although in order to replace Javier Solana, bets are also being placed on the former head of Austrian diplomacy, Ursula Plassnik.