The past two months have been a bad time for transatlantic relationship. On 25 December 2009, the ‘underwear bomber’ struck on an Amsterdam-Detroit flight, casting a new spotlight on the divisive issue of full body image scanning at airports. On 31 January, in a slap in the face to the Spanish EU Presidency, the White House made a surprise announcement that US President Obama would not attend an EU-US summit in Spain this spring. Finally, in perhaps the most damaging strike of all, the European Parliament, on 11 February, tore up the November 2009 EU-US agreement that gave the US access to European bank transaction data held by the Belgian-based SWIFT company.

No one has officially said these controversies have hurt the prospects for the five outstanding EU countries still not on US Visa Waiver Programme (VWP) of joining. But privately diplomats are worried given the negative atmosphere in Washington. Greece, which is top of the list of hopefuls, was tipped to get visa waiver status in January or February, having already met all the statutory eligibility requirements. However, a US official told Europolitics “the decision process is ongoing”. Greece may not be a big concern for the US in terms of it being a port of departure or a breeding ground for terrorists bent on attacking the US. But Greece’s current economic crisis, evidenced by ballooning budget deficits that are destabilising the entire eurozone, is not helping its chances. While the debate on expanding the VWP has in recent years centred on whether terrorists can slip in more easily using it, pre-11 September 2001, the main concern was of overstayers illegally immigrating to the US. And countries in economic crises tend to raise red flags as potential sources of illegal immigration.

As for the other four hopefuls - Bulgaria, Cyprus, Poland and Romania - little progress can be hoped for in the present political climate. Moreover, none of them meet all of the many statutory requirements for inclusion, such as low visa refusal rates and use of biometric passports. The European Commission has consistently urged Washington to add them, keen that all EU27 are treated the same. But the Commission has lost credibility in Washington since the Parliament rejected the SWIFT agreement the Commission itself negotiated.

NEW FEE

EU officials are likely to focus efforts for the time being on a related issue: the US Congress’ plans to impose a fee of about US$15 on all VWP travellers. The fee would be collected when travellers apply for their required Electronic System of Travel Authorisation or ESTA. The fee makes ESTA look increasingly like a visa in disguise, which is why the Commission opposes it. The US House of Representatives approved it, on 6 November 2009, while the Senate is due to re-examine the proposal in the coming weeks. The US administration has said it will not veto the bill should it pass.