The prospects are rather bleak that the informal meeting of the top Doha trade negotiators in Davos, Switzerland, on 28 January, will lead to a breakthrough in a long-stalled international trade talks, according to experts. “This is another informal meeting, which will most probably fail to yield results,” Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, co-director of the Brussels-based European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE), told Europolitics. He argued that no significant progress can be expected at this stage as the big players have been sticking to their guns. “Since the breakdown of the talks two years ago, nothing has really changed in terms of configurations or the positions adopted by the big players,” said Lee-Makiyama. A slightly less pessimistic view was expressed by Ambassador Sergio Marchi, senior fellow at the Geneva-based International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD). He argued that the ministerial get-together could create a critical mass that is necessary to get the talks off the ground in 2011. “Any mobilisation of energy is welcome,” Marchi told Europolitics. He noted, however, that “it’s important that ministers not only talk but that they also elbow each other so as to try to create the political will that ultimately is necessary to get over the mountain.”

The informal meeting that will take place on the sidelines of the Wold Economic Forum in Davos was convened on the initiative of EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht (see Europolitics4122). He invited the trade ministers of six leading countries (Australia, Brazil, China, India, Japan and the United States) “to discuss the way ahead for the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) talks”. The conclusion of the Doha negotiations in 2011 is described by the EU as its “top priority”. “The EU will continue to pursue actively an outcome in the DDA negotiations for an ambitious, balanced and comprehensive agreement beneficial to all players by end 2011,” reads the DG Trade internal document on the main objectives for 2011. De Gucht remains optimistic, but at the same time he is rather cautious about the ultimate outcome of his latest initiative, according to a source close to the issue. “He is not afraid of a failure,” said the source, underlining De Gucht’s determination to get the process off the ground. “It is important to underline that whilst 2011 does present a real opportunity to conclude negotiations, this meeting is just a first step in exploring the way forward and without prejudice to the format of any future meetings,” Commission spokesperson John Clancy said in a statement, on 17 January, while commenting on the objective of the meeting.

The Doha Development Round was launched nearly a decade ago, in November 2001, to help poor countries prosper through trade. But the talks have stumbled repeatedly as negotiators clashed over proposals to cut tariffs and subsidies on goods from food to chemicals. Differences between industrial powers and major emerging nations had led to the collapse of negotiations in 2003, and again in 2006, 2007 and 2008. The EU’s decision to convene a separate, informal meeting of the seven leading trade powers in Davos is seen as a possible signal that political momentum may be building to unlock the process and complete the talks in 2011. “The EU hopes that this gathering can help to build a renewed momentum to the Doha talks in the coming months that can eventually lead to a successful outcome for all sides,” Clancy said. The EU-initiated gathering will follow a formal meeting of trade ministers from more than 20 key trading nations also on the sidelines of the Davos Forum, whose aim is to advance the talks.

GLOOMY PICTURE

There is, however, little optimism about a breakthrough in Davos. “One should remain optimistic but also has to be realistic. The situation on the ground is that while there has been a lot of talking, things more or less stayed the same following the last breakdown of talks in 2008,” said Marchi. His views were echoed by Lee-Makiyama. “The situation of Doha is such that the red lines, in other words, what each party can accept, are not overlapping,” he argued, adding that “there hasn’t been any significant reconfiguration of the big players. Nobody has caved in on anything for the last two years”. There is also little enthusiasm for making the necessary concessions to break the impasse among the leading trade powers, with the countries accusing each other of policy foot-dragging over Doha. India is not holding its breath for progress at the meeting in Davos because of the scant engagement by the United States, Trade Secretary Rahul Khullar said, on 24 January. “What is there to hold your breath for?” Khullar asked in an interview with Reuters. “There’s been engagement but I don’t see the kind of progress you need to narrow differences,” he added. Meanwhile, Washington wants greater market access for its businesses, especially in rapidly emerging India, China and Brazil. The United States complains that New Delhi, Beijing and Brasilia refuse to accept the responsibility that comes with their growing economic strength. “If they’re prepared to accept that responsibility we’ll have a successful outcome, if they’re not […] we will not,” commented Michael Punke, US ambassador to the WTO.

DE GUCHT’S ROLE

According to experts, the EU should do its utmost to bridge the differences and create synergies among the six leading players in Davos. “Europe could be in a very good position to provide the energy, particularly on movement on the issue of agriculture, which is obviously the bone of contention with the developing countries,” said Marchi. “So I would welcome any move on the EU side to try to create the synergies but the political will is absolutely crucial,” he concluded. This view is not entirely shared by Lee-Makiyama, who believes that the Commission’s latest initiative is nothing more than a “symbolic gesture to show that Doha remains De Gucht’s first preference in terms of trade liberalisation”.

BUSINESSES WANT PROGRESS

In a position paper signed by 14 business organisations, Eurochambres strongly advocates the conclusion of the Doha Round talks in 2011. The EU’s business organisations “believe that a deal is within reach and call strongly upon both negotiators and political leaders to conclude an ambitious, comprehensive and well-balanced Doha Round before the end of 2011,” reads the statement issued on the eve of the Davos ministerial meeting. “Roll up your sleeves and finish the deal quickly,” reads the headline of the paper.