THE “NATURAL”

The current President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso (EPP), is a candidate for a second term. In fact, he is the only officially declared candidate and has the backing of both his own party – the European People’s Party – and a number of European leaders (Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland). Barroso’s past is an open book: from his Maoist activity in the Movement for Reorganisation of the Proletariat Party (MRPP), his switchover - after his father’s death and a stay in London - to the Social Democrat Party, which is classified as centre-right (PSD), his studies in the United States and above all his slow but steady rise to power.

State secretary for home affairs in 1985, and for foreign affairs in the government headed by Anibal Cavaco Silva, Barroso ended up being assigned the foreign minister’s portfolio. After the SPD’s election defeat, he took over the leadership of his party and became prime minister in 2002. Barroso sided with the Americans in the run-up to the war in Iraq (hosting the summit meeting attended by Bush, Blair and Aznar in the Azores). He was not lacking in ambition, so when he was offered the European Commission presidency, in June 2004, Barroso did not think twice about leaving Lisbon for Brussels.

Today, he hopes to match Jacques Delors’ record of ten years at the helm of the European Commission. In this first term of office, the former prime minister of Portugal has put in a credible performance. Barroso combines language proficiency - fluency in English, French and Spanish – with personal appeal, strong analytical skills and cleverness at detecting political developments. He tends to favour a wait-and-see approach over bold tactics, and comes across as fainthearted, wavering constantly between projects. He did not succeed in defending an ambitious budget for Europe, proved to be an enthusiast for ‘less’ rather than ‘better’ lawmaking and of course failed to see the approaching financial and economic storm. The European Commission consequently lost a good year coming out of the starting gates.

Barroso’s watchword is staying ‘attuned’ to governments, which gives him a clear majority among today’s national leaders, with France remaining a question mark. On the other hand, Barroso has serious enemies in the European Parliament, among the Liberals, Socialists and Greens. However, his opponents failed to agree on another candidate during the campaign.

THE ALTERNATIVE

The Prime Minister of the Netherlands (CDA-EPP), Jan Peter Balkenende (EPP), who has declared that the European Commission presidency is not on his political agenda for the moment, “would not turn it down,” according to Dutch Foreign Minister Ben Bot, who launched his candidacy.

Balkenende was born on 7 May 1956 in Biezelinge, a small Calvinist province in the Netherlands. After studying history and law, he began his career in the research team of the Christian Democrat Institute and as town counsellor in Amstelveen (Amsterdam). He then moved on to the Christian Social Doctrine chair at the Free University of Amsterdam. It was in politics though that Balkenende started getting noticed. Elected to the house of representatives, in May 1998, he took up the reins of the Christian Democrat group, in 2001, succeeding Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, future foreign minister and later NATO secretary-general.

Nicknamed ‘Harry Potter’ because of his round spectacles and ‘baby face’, Balkenende became prime minister in 2002, where he has stayed put in spite of changes of coalitions (he governs today with the PvDA Social Democrats). He has played a decisive role in slashing the country’s debt and consolidating its finances. His domestic policy hinges on modernisation of the public service, fighting crime and setting strict immigration quotas. At international level, he is known as an Atlanticist and supported the American interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. He was also one of the prime movers for the introduction of a protocol on public services in the Lisbon Treaty.

THE COMEBACK

Former Prime Minister of Belgium for around a decade, Guy Verhofstadt (ALDE)came very close once to becoming European Commission president and dreams of a European future. His candidacy has been approved by the European Democratic Party, whose member parties include Modem (France) and Margherita (Italy).

Born in 1953, Verhofstadt entered politics at age 24 under the wing of Willy De Clercq, head of the Flemish Liberal party, PVV. Known as ‘baby Thatcher’ for his very liberal positions, he transformed the PVV into a more modern party, the VLD, capable of vying with its old enemy, the Christian Democrats. Although he has had to make concessions over the years, he does not deny his convictions, but at European level is seen as representing the centre-left, a quirk of the continental optical effect. Verhoftstadt also passionately defends the idea of EU regulation, including, in the financial sphere, the setting of minimum and maximum social and tax levels, and more integrated European organisation.

THE OPPONENT

The former Prime Minister of Denmark (1993 to 2001) and current President of the Party of European Socialists, Poul Nyrup Rasmussen (PES) is often mentioned as a possible candidate. Although his party has refused to nominate him, he still hopes that “another majority will emerge and that José Manuel Barroso might not be reappointed”. He is backed by the leaders of other parties, including Daniel Cohn-Bendit (Greens). The appointment of the current Danish prime minister as NATO secretary-general, who also happens to be named Rasmussen, has cast a shadow over Poul Nyrup Rasmussen’s candidacy. The presence of two Danes at the head of two European organisations at the same time seems out of the question.

Born in June 1943 in Esberg, Denmark, in a modest milieu, he earned a degree in economics from the University of Copenhagen in 1971. Chief economist for the Danish Labour Confederation, he become the president of the Social Democratic Party (DK) in 1992. As prime minister, he was known for forging the ‘kick-start’ recovery policy, in 1993-1994. Re-elected in 1998, he convinced Danish voters to back the Amsterdam Treaty (by 55%) but failed to bring his country into the eurozone (53.2% opposed). Rasmussen organised early elections in 2001 after the terrorist attacks of 11 September.

THE TECHNICIAN

His name came up only recently, championed by the European Democratic Party. Italy’s Mario Monti has the advantage of being rather neutral politically and gets good marks as a political leader. Monti has the disadvantage of having the same nationality as Romano Prodi, who held the Commission president’s seat only recently (1999 to 2004).

Born in 1943, ‘il professore’ is first and foremost a pragmatic academic. A professor of monetary theory and policy, and then of political science at Bocconi University, before becoming its president, he was appointed to the European Commission by the Berlusconi government and confirmed by the D’Alema government, a feat in itself. In charge of the internal market under the Santer Commission, from 1995 to 1999, and competition in the Prodi Commission, from 1999 to 2004, he earned the reputation of being a tough nut to crack. Monti unhesitatingly used his powers to fight mergers – eg General Electric and Honeywell – and state aid plans – eg for the French firm Alstom – that he saw as representing a threat to the European market.

THE UNKNOWN

Officially he is not a candidate. If offered, though, Hans-Gert Pöttering (EPP)would not hesitate to take the job. Pöttering has the advantage of being German and a German has not headed the European Commission for more than 40 years.

Pöttering lives and breathes Europe. Born just a few days after the end of the World War Two, on 15 September 1945, Pöttering studied law and political science at the Universities of Bonn and Geneva and then headed for New York (Columbia University). He served as spokesman in 1974 for the young people of Niedersachsen, his native region, and became a member of the European Parliament upon its transformation into a body elected by universal suffrage, in 1979. He has served as EP president for the last 30 months. In 2004, Pöttering used his clout to counter Guy Verhofstadt’s candidacy and to support José Manuel Barroso. As chairman of the EPP group (Christian Democrats) in the European Parliament, Pöttering always stood up for one of his own in the top position at the European Commission.