“The Western Balkans can always keep you occupied when you have nothing else to do.” Despite a jam-packed agenda, the Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs, Carl Bildt, does not intend to abandon his favourite region (he was the EU special envoy and then the high representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1995 to 1997, and the UN secretary-general’s special envoy for the Balkans from 1999 to 2001). Quite the contrary. “It is extremely important for the entire Western Balkans to move towards the EU, even if it is not at the same speed. A series of blockades is currently in place, at the expense of stability in the region,” he noted.

BILATERAL CONFLICTS

The first blockade relates to the Slovenian veto, in place since December 2008, on the continuation of negotiations on Croatia’s accession to the EU due to a disagreement on their terrestrial and maritime borders. After almost six months of futile mediation, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn threw in the towel and Bildt does not, for the moment, want to take a new initiative. “This is now the time for a period of reflection for both countries. This is a bilateral dispute and it is up to them to resolve it. If they have something to say, I will listen with interest,” he underlined. Furthermore, Zagreb still needs to complete its legal reform, step up its fight against corruption and submit the documents required by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia in relation to the trial of former generals in The Hague. Even if Ljubljana were to lift its veto in the coming weeks, negotiations are not expected to end before 2010 for accession in 2011 at the earliest.

Bildt is of the same philosophy regarding the dispute between Skopje and Athens over Macedonia’s name, which at the end of the year is likely to block a Council decision to open accession negotiations with Macedonia. “A compromise on both sides will be necessary. But even then, I would like to stress that responsibility for resolving bilateral issues lies with the countries concerned. We cannot impose a solution and we do not intend to do so,” he explained.

As for the rest of the Balkans, the Swedish Presidency intends to transmit Albania’s EU application to the Commission, as was recently done for Montenegro, so that it may issue an opinion (which will take more than one year). Bildt also believes that Serbia has improved its cooperation in a “very substantial manner” with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia and will try hard to convince the Netherlands to lift its opposition to the interim implementation of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with Belgrade. Lastly, Sweden hopes that the Council will adopt the Commission’s proposal – expected in July – on a visa exemption scheme for Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro.

CYPRUS: A PRIORITY DOSSIER

However, the most important dossier over the coming months is not in Bildt’s hands. It concerns negotiations on the reunification of Cyprus, the outcome of which will have serious consequences on Turkey. Talks under the auspices of the UN began in September 2008 between the Cypriot President, Demetris Christofias, and Mehmet Ali Talat, the leader of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (only recognised by Ankara). They revived hopes of reaching a negotiated solution after years of blockade and the collapse of a UN plan rejected in 2004 by Greek Cypriots. “I am very impressed by the determination of the two political leaders,” affirmed Bildt, even if – for the time being – these talks have not led to conclusive progress.

A breakthrough in the second half of the year would have a direct impact on Turkey’s accession negotiations insofar as, in 2006, the EU blocked the opening of eight negotiation chapters in reaction to Ankara’s refusal to open its ports and airports to Cyprus. The December Summit should review this decision on the basis of a Commission report in the autumn. Besides the Cypriot issue, the progress of negotiations has also been curbed by the slowdown of reforms in Turkey and the opposition - reiterated during the European election campaign by Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy - to Turkey’s membership. “Some European attitudes have opened the way to a serious erosion of popular enthusiasm and consensus in the public,” lamented the Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In this context, Bildt, while considering that Europe has a “strategic interest” in Turkey’s accession, remains highly cautious on the possibility of opening new chapters over the coming months. Only 11 of the 35 negotiating chapters have been opened, including just one (taxation) under the Czech Presidency on 30 June.

ICELAND, SURPRISE GUEST

The task of the Swedish Presidency will be much easier with another northern country, Iceland, whose application, which returned to the table with the arrival of a left-wing government in the spring, is expected from July after a vote in Parliament. “Iceland has already completed three quarters of the course,” according to Bildt, because it is an old democracy and already applies a very large part of European regulation as a member of the European Economic Area. “This would add a new dimension to the European Union at a time when everyone is interested in the Arctic, in terms of energy resources, maritime routes and environmental protection,” he underlined. The main obstacle to membership will concern fishing and the application of European quotas.