The Reflection Group on the future of Europe in 2020-2030, chaired by former Spanish Socialist Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez, will present its conclusions in March or June. These will be wide-ranging but will not address institutional or budget issues or the EU’s borders.

Gonzalez admits that “the mandate is very clear on what we cannot address but is a bit vaguer on what we can”. From the outset, the committee’s remit, which is supposed to look ahead into the future, has sparked debate. The idea of setting up the group was suggested by Nicolas Sarkozy in August 2007, with the hidden agenda of discussing Turkish membership, to which the French president has always voiced opposition. In the end, due to pressure from pro-enlargement countries, the group was put in place, but its remit was to a large extent emptied of substance. It was decided that the 12 committee members, selected from non-institutional circles, would not have to discuss the issue of future enlargements or institutional and budgetary reforms, but simply identify the key subjects that the EU will be addressing in the coming years.

After several meetings, the committee selected five issues for reflection: the European economic and social cohesion model, energy and the fight against climate change, migratory flows in Europe and the response to demographic needs, security against terrorism and organised crime, and European identity and ties with citizens.

After being relegated to the background for some time, the group is expected to come back into the limelight since its conclusions are expected to be submitted to the European Council in March or June, according to Spain’s State Secretary for European Affairs, Diego López Garrido. He adds that he would not be surprised to see the group submit “provocative” conclusions. Their text is not expected to be more than 30 pages long and will contain recommendations.

The 12 committee members

Chairman Felipe Gonzalez has two vice-chairs, former president of Latvia, Vaira Vike-Freiberga, and the former CEO of the Finnish firm Nokia, Jorma Ollila. The nine other members are: Lykke Friis (NL), Vice-Chancellor of the University of Copenhagen; Rem Koolhaas (NL), well known architect; Richard Lambert (UK), Director-General of the employers’ organisation CBI; Mario Monti (IT), former Competition Commissioner; Rainer Münz (AT), Professor of demography; Kalypso Nicolaïdis (EL), Professor at the Centre for European Studies at Oxford University; Nicole Notat (FR), former General Secretary of the CFDT; Wolfgang Schuster (DE), CDU Mayor of Stuttgart; and Lech Walesa (PL), former President of Poland.