Now that uncertainty over the entry into force of the Treaty of Lisbon is no longer an issue, some countries are likely to draw closer to the EU during the first half of 2010. The Council is expected to decide by June on the opening of Iceland’s membership talks, once the Commission has issued its opinion. With Iceland already applying three-quarters of EU legislation owing to its membership of the European Free Trade Area and the Schengen Area, the negotiations will proceed quickly and accession should be possible by 2012 or 2013 if the Icelanders are still interested.

The general situation in the Balkans is set to be closely followed by the European Council. Croatia is closest to the EU and is “now in the final phase of membership negotiations”, according to the conclusions of the General Affairs Council on 7 December.

Zagreb still has to make “significant improvements” in the judiciary, the public administration and the fight against corruption, however. In fact, although Zagreb hopes to conclude the talks in the first half of 2010, the latter half of the year seems a more realistic timeframe. Cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) is “generally good”, but the Council regrets that the ICTY Prosecutor “has not yet been able to report substantial progress” on the request for certain key military documents that could be used in the trial in The Hague of three former Croatian generals, Ante Gotovina, Ivan Cermak and Mladen Markac. The United Kingdom and the Netherlands make this issue a pre-condition for opening the judicial and fundamental rights chapter. In parallel, the Council will begin drafting Zagreb’s accession treaty. Croatia hopes to become the 28th member state in 2012.

“LAST-CHANCE NEGOTIATIONS” IN CYPRUS

For Turkey, the progress of its membership talks will depend on whether or not a deal on the reunification of Cyprus can be sealed in the coming months after 35 years of partition. The talks between Cypriot President Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat have to conclude soon because Talat could well lose the elections in April to a more intransigent leader. Several diplomats therefore believe that these are the “last-chance negotiations” for some time to come.

In its conclusions, the Council notes that Turkey’s contribution to a settlement of this conflict is “crucial” given its military presence and influence in the northern part of the island. In the absence of an agreement in Cyprus, Ankara’s membership negotiations will continue at a snail’s pace, particularly because Cyprus has announced its intention of stalling all progress in the five negotiating chapters not yet started due to Turkey’s refusal to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot ships and aircraft, as stipulated in the memorandum of understanding. This would come on top of the eight chapters already at a standstill for the same reason since December 2006.

MACEDONIA CANDIDACY BLOCKED BY GREECE

The Council will also be reviewing the case of Macedonia during the first half of the year. The opening of accession talks with this country could not be decided in December due to the dispute with Athens over its name. Since 1991, Greece has been holding up international recognition of Macedonia under this name, which it claims belongs exclusively to its national heritage. Macedonia was admitted to the UN in 1993 under the provisional name of Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). As long as this issue remains unsettled, Athens will continue to veto the opening of negotiations.

No major new developments are expected for Albania and Montenegro. The Commission is still drawing up its opinion on their membership applications. Serbia officially applied for membership of the EU on 22 December after an impasse over an interim association and stabilisation agreement (trade section) was broken in December, despite the fact that ratification of the ASA has not been launched yet. The EU-27 will return to this matter in June in the light of cooperation with the ICT, and in particular the arrest of the two fugitives sought by the ICT, Ratko Mladic, former military chief of the Serbs in Bosnia, and Goran Hadzic, former leader of the Serbs in Croatia. In Kosovo, the Eulex mission, the biggest civil mission ever led by the EU (with a staff of 3,000) will continue its action to consolidate the rule of law.

END OF SUPERVISION OF BOSNIA?

Unlike other Balkan states that are drawing closer to the EU, albeit at different rates, Bosnia and Herzegovina is stagnating. Fourteen years after the Dayton Agreements, it is still under the supervision of a High Representative (currently Austrian diplomat Valentin Inzko) and is divided into two entities and three peoples with very different views: on the one hand, the unified and centralised Republika Sprska (49% of its territory), which is holding up any further strengthening of the central state; on the other, the decentralised Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has ten cantons, and within which Bosnians (Muslims) support a stronger state, in opposition to the Croats who are advocates of power at the cantonal level.

At the end of October, the EU and the United States tabled a set of minimum reforms that would permit Bosnia to cease being “a semi-protectorate in a semi-functioning state”, according to Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt. The leaders of the three peoples rejected them, however, and are not likely to adopt them in 2010 with general elections on the horizon in October. In these circumstances, the international community will have to take a tough decision in February on closing the office of the High Representative, whose power to impose laws is increasingly disputed. This closure, which would mean a reinforced EU presence, is a pre-condition for Bosnia’s candidacy.

The only ‘carrot’ that has helped get things moving a bit is the liberalisation of visas enjoyed by citizens of Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro since 19 December. If Bosnia and Albania make good their delay, particularly on issuing biometric passports, the Commission could propose a waiver of visas for these two countries in the summer of 2010.