Europolitics has drawn on the expertise of international journalists based in Brussels and on correspondents in member states to present a panorama of the political situation across Europe one month before the elections. The picture is extremely diverse and confirms that national issues and concerns will loom large in the campaign (coordinated by Rory Watson).

AUSTRIA

The European elections will demonstrate whether the ruling ‘grand coalition’ of Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the Conservative Peoples Party (ÖVP) still deserves to be called ‘grand’. All the parties reflect the growing Euroscepticism and are placing established MEPs down their lists. Former Home Secretary Ernst Strasser is the Conservative front-runner. Euro rebel Hans-Peter Martin, who accused MEPs of misusing their parliamentary allowances, is campaigning again. Pollsters predict significant gains for the right-wing anti-immigration opposition, the far right Freiheitliche Partei (FPÖ) and Jörg Haider’s legacy Bündnis Zukunft Österreich (BZÖ). Against this background, Declan Ganley’s Libertas is unlikely to gain ground. According to a recent poll, 30% will vote SPÖ (-3%), 29% ÖVP (-4%), 15% FPÖ (+9%), 9% Greens (-3%), 6% BZÖ (+6%) and 3% Martin (-11%). Turnout is likely to hit new record lows below 40%.

BELGIUM

Regional elections will be held on the same day and, given that voting is compulsory, a high turnout is guaranteed. Reflecting the country’s federal nature, 13 MEPs are allocated to Dutch speakers, eight to francophones and one to the small German-speaking community. There must be male and female parity on the party lists. The EU’s Development Commissioner, Louis Michel, heads the French-speaking Liberal (MR) candidates. Belgium, which takes over the rotating EU Presidency in the second half of 2010, is traditionally a pro-European country. It has the highest confidence rate in the European Parliament (64%). But in the campaign, regional, linguistic and economic issues will feature more prominently than purely European questions. An internal Belgian dispute over the status of a constituency bordering Brussels, for instance, has led Flemish communes to refuse to make the necessary arrangements for the elections.

BULGARIA

The European elections will be a tough test for the ruling Socialist-Liberal coalition, which has been in office since 2005, ahead of the general elections scheduled for early July. The campaign is likely be dominated by the difficulties Bulgaria is experiencing in handling EU funds. This has led to €220 million being withheld and another €500 million suspended. The right-wing opposition parties are accusing the ruling coalition of being responsible for the mismanagement. According to different forecasts, the turnout is expected to be between 27% and 30%. The likely winner is the right-wing party GERB, headed by the Mayor of Sofia, Boyko Borisov. Research published in April by MBMD – a leading Bulgarian opinion poll agency – indicated 26% of voters will choose GERB, 16% the BSP (Socialists), followed by the DPS (Liberals - 9%), ATAKA (far right - 6%) and SDS-DSB (right - 5%).

CYPRUS

Purely European issues will be of secondary importance to national ones and the electorate is likely to vote for candidates on the basis of the latter. This may be because the public does not have an extensive understanding of EU affairs. It knows very little about the Lisbon Treaty, despite the fact that it contains a clause on member states defending each other if one of their number is attacked – a potential safety net for Cyprus. All political parties, especially the leftish AKEL to which President Demetris Christofias belongs, will be looking to increase their votes. An improved result for the government in the elections will send it a positive message on the issues it is currently handling, especially the island’s settlement talks. The other political parties – DISY (Conservatives), DH.KO (Democratic Party) and EDEK (Socialists) support Cyprus’ participation in NATO’s Partnership for Peace – a policy the government opposes. Turnout is likely to be quite high since Cypriots tend to take elections seriously. According to the latest Eurobarometer, 52% of Cypriots say they are interested in European elections – 8% higher than the EU average.

CZECH REPUBLIC

With the fall of the Czech centre-right coalition government, the elections to the European Parliament are looking more and more like a dress rehearsal for the national fight in mid-October. The main slogan for the European battle of the centre-left Social Democrats, ‘Certainty for people, hope for Europe’, is an echo of its anti-crisis national campaign. The centre-right Civic Democrats are fighting the campaign under the banner ‘Solutions rather than spreading fear’, adding that they are looking for a strong and self-confident Czech Republic in Europe. The ODS rhetoric has lost some of its antagonsim towards Europe – a reflection perhaps of the separation from party founder and Czech President Václav Klaus. Early polls put the Social Democrats slightly ahead but not by much. A survey by the STEM agency, on April 21, gave the Social Democrats 23%, the Civic Democrats 21% and the Communists 11%, with the Christian Democrats and Greens struggling to get more than 5%.

DENMARK

The Danish campaign follows the established pattern of previous European elections. Initially, the media report the public’s general ignorance. Just 19% knew the date. Next, the press notes that nobody is really aware of the candidates. Finally, as the elections draw closer, polls show that around 50% of Danes will vote. The political debate focuses on the need to limit how much the EU should decide. But few concrete proposals are given for policies which should be scrapped. Whether Turkey should be given EU membership or a privileged partnership is also being raised. Five years ago, the record number of personal votes given to former Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen helped the Social Democrats win five seats. He is not standing this time. The Social Democrats and Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s Liberal Party look set to be the main winners and the anti-EU movements the main losers.

ESTONIA

The opposition Centre Party seems to have the edge over PM Andrus Ansip’s Liberal Reform Party in the Estonian elections (advance voting by internet may help boost the 2004 turnout of just 27%). Polls suggest a slim lead for the Centre Party, much of whose support comes from Russian-speaking non-citizens who cannot vote. They can vote, however, in local elections on 18 October, when Centre Party may expand on its strong base in the capital, Tallinn. The likely distribution of seats is two apiece for Centre and Reform, with one each for the Social Democrats and the Conservative Pro Patria-Res Publica Union. The big losers are expected to be the Social Democrats, who won three seats last time because the current President Toomas Hendrik Ilves headed their list and generally poll around 10-15%. Campaigning is mainly on domestic issues – Centre’s slogan is ‘Estonia needs change’, blaming the government for the steep economic slide. One surprise may be the likely election of Eurosceptic Igor Grazin (Reform), who was approached by Libertas but declined to support them.

FINLAND

Nine of the 14 Finnish MEPs have decided not to stand again, not even tempted by the higher salaries they would enjoy. The few politicians who are running complain that party leaders will not come out to campaign alongside them. This could have something to do with the fact that according to opinion polls in April, 73% do not even know there is an election in June. Of those who do, only 30% intend to vote. Using the election to punish the government is not uncommon. Many Finns, still upset at plans to raise the pension age, might want to. But it is hard to do so when four parties, bearing all political colours from blue to green, are in the government. The only controversy that might motivate some voters is the clear risk that there will be no Swedish-speaking Finns in the new Parliament. But even that would not help raise the turnout much from the 41% in 2004, since the Swedish-speaking minority is less than 6% of the population.

FRANCE 

Sarkozy, Sarkozy, Sarkozy: the elections will be a national test for the forces involved, being determined with relation to the head of state and not Europe (despite two meetings planned between Merkel and Sarkozy). The UMP militants in power are rallying round to keep to a minimum protest votes due to the economic crisis. With 26-27% of people planning to vote in April, the majority party would stay in the lead, losing ground from the 2007 presidential victory (31% in the first round) but not as bad as the defeat of Jacques Chirac at the European elections in 2004 (16.6%). The Socialist Party, recovering from a long search for a leader, would not repeat its 2004 record (29%), but stay in second place (22-25%) ahead of Modem in the centre (12-14%), Daniel Cohn-Bendit’s Europe Ecologie (8-10%), Jean-Marie Le Pen’s National Front (7-8%) and Libertas (5-7%). The opposition is campaigning on an ‘anti-Barroso’ ticket, the extreme right ‘against Euro-globalisation’. The elections will take place on 7 June in Metropolitan France, one day earlier in the overseas departments and territories. Turnout has fallen every time (from 60.7% in 1979 to 43.1% in 2004).

GERMANY

The elections are mostly seen as a test ahead of the national elections, on 27 September. European issues are hardly visible in the campaign. According to opinion polls for the national elections, the Christian Democrats (CDU and the Bavarian CSU), who are currently in a coalition government with the Social Democrats (SPD), would be able to form a narrow majority with the Liberals (FDP) next autumn in Berlin. Compared to 2004, the CDU and CSU are set to lose some of their current 49 MEPs (out of a total of 99 German members), while the SPD (currently only 23 MEPs), the FDP (seven MEPs) and the left wing party Die Linke (seven MEPs) look set to increase their presence. The Greens (13 MEPs) could be weakened somewhat. To return MEPs, the CSU, with candidates only in Bavaria, must achieve a country-wide result above the 5% threshold. Although local elections are taking place on the same day in seven of the 16 regional states, which could boost the national turnout, the general expectation is that the CSU will be represented in the new Parliament.

GREECE

In early May, the Greeks still did not know whether the European elections would be combined with early general elections. In any case, they should be a test for a weakened government. Greek political life has been dominated for months by financial and political scandals that have destabilised the centre-right government of Costas Karamanlis. Karamanlis has a narrow parliamentary majority, with just 151 out of 300 parliamentarians. The polls are less and less favourable to him. The Socialists and the other parties on the left should pick up votes from some of the discontented voters. The emergence of a new Liberal party complicates matters. The ecologists are betting on Greeks’ discontent after the fires of August 2007, which the government described as “criminal acts”. Voting is compulsory in Greece, and so the expected high voter turnout will hide the growing rejection by public opinion of all aspects of the Greek political system.

HUNGARY

The country is facing a busy electoral period as Gordon Bajnai’s minority Socialist government, with the external support of the Liberal Alliance of Free Democrats, struggles to cope with crises on several fronts. If it falls in the autumn, as some expect, national elections are inevitable and are due to be followed several months later by local polls. In this scenario, the European campaign is the first of a trio of tests for the Socialists, who have been in power for seven years, but in crisis since 2006. Ever since former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány admitted “lying” about the state of the country’s economy in the electoral campaign three years ago, the opposition Fidesz has challenged the Socialist government’s legitimacy. The Socialist MSZP looks set for heavy losses, possibly down from nine to five seats in the 24-member delegation. Fidesz could go from 12 now to as many as 18. It is not excluded that an extremist party, such as the right-wing Movement For a Better Hungary, might win a seat.

IRELAND

Local elections to be held on the same day as the European contest could make or break the governing coalition, led by the centrist Fianna Fáil party. An emergency budget introduced on 7 April – which hiked taxes and trimmed spending to deal with a spiralling deficit of 10.75% of GDP – has cost the government vital supporters. An opinion poll, published in the Sunday Business Post on 25 April, shows the opposition Fine Gael party (with five sitting MEPs) has a ten-point lead over Fianna Fáil (four seats in the current Parliament), with the Labour Party trailing the main governing party by just four points. Libertas, the pan-European group campaigning against the Lisbon Treaty, is running three candidates in Ireland, but support for its platform is low, at about 2%. A second referendum on Lisbon is due in October, but no firm date has yet been set.

ITALY

Election day will also see voters participating in the first stage of administrative elections to renew local authorities, including mayors and provincial presidents. In all, 79 parties or groupings, including the Equal Opportunities for Men Party and the Free Condom Party, are putting forward candidates for the European Parliament. To gain an MEP, a party will have to cross a national 4% threshold. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is talking of a landslide win of over 50% for his Popolo della Libertà (PDL), the result of the recent merger between his Forza Italia and Gianfranco Fini’s Alleanza Nazionale. He is looking to capitalise on the wide media exposure he received after the Abruzzo earthquake and has blatantly picked attractive female candidates to attract the popular vote. The opposition parties – Partito Democratico (PD), Italia dei Valori (IDV), Unione Democratici di Centro (UDC) and the extreme left – are trying to challenge his dominance. Turnout is expected to be high.

LATVIA

Local elections being held on the same day could boost turnout. Latest indications are that the left-wing opposition party, Saskanas centrs (Harmony Centre) will poll well. Alfreds Rubiks, the former head of the Communist Party of Latvia who opposed Latvia’s independence from the Soviet Union, is top of its list. It has a narrow lead over the centre-right Pilsoniska savieniba (Civic Union) formed in 2008 by defectors from Jaunais laiks (JL) and Tevzemei un Brivibai/LNNK (TB/LNNK) with the former Foreign Minister and EU Commissioner Sandra Kalniete as its leading figure. The Liberal group, headed by former Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis, and formed by two parties – LPP-LC – is in third place. The economy, as the country faces a massive financial crisis, is a main campaign theme, while Russian-speaking parties are promising to defend their supporters’ rights in Europe and win Latvian citizenship for everyone. For the first time, a non-Latvian is standing. Italian MEP Giulietto Chiesa will run for the left-wing, green party PCTVL (For Human Rights in United Latvia).

LITHUANIA

The forthcoming presidential election and the parlous state of the country’s economy have thrown the European election campaign into the shade as all parties concentrate on the poll to take place later this month, rather than the one in early June. However, the presidential contest also has a European tinge to it. The leading contender from the handful of candidates, and likely victor, is EU Budget Commissioner Dalia Grybauskaite. Also Lithuanians in other parts of Europe, notably Ireland, are being encouraged to vote. After the passion of the presidential election, observers expect the European campaign to be flat with a low turnout. The economy is likely to be the dominant issue as the government cuts spending and tries to recreate financial stability. Polls suggest the main loser will be the Labour Party, a member of the ALDE group, which won five of the country’s 13 seats in 2004.

LUXEMBOURG

Despite a general election being held on the same day, the European contest is managing to project its own identity. This is partly because the Greens, as in other countries, are campaigning on European issues. But more importantly, for the first time in ten years, leading politicians, such as Premier Jean-Claude Juncker, can no longer stand on both national and European lists, using their personal popularity to boost their party’s votes. Telecommunications Commissioner Viviane Reding heads the Social Christian list, but is expected to stay in the EU executive if she is reappointed for another five-year term. Given that 41% of the Grand Duchy’s population is made up of other EU nationals, efforts are being made to entice the foreign vote. Five years ago, 5% of foreigners registered to vote. This time, that has risen to 11%.

MALTA

The elections will coincide with those for a third of Malta’s local councils and just a year after the Christian Democrat Nationalist Party, in government almost continuously since 1987, was returned to power. Represented by two MEPs in the EPP group, it is at its lowest ever level of popularity due to some tough early decisions in its current five-year legislature. Labour, the main opposition party, is expected to benefit, with polls showing it currently enjoying a substantial lead over the Nationalist Party. It looks likely to have three MEPs (probably four when the sixth seat under the Lisbon Treaty becomes available), while the Nationalist Party will keep its two representatives. Other parties are not expected to perform well. These include the Greens - Alternattiva Demokratika, Azzjoni Nazzjonali - Libertas, with one candidate, and the Alleajanza-Liberal Demokratika. The campaign is expected to be dominated by national issues, especially illegal immigration, employment and the economic downturn. It will serve as a protest vote against the ruling administration. Traditionally, Malta has a high turnout, with more than 80% in 2004, but polls suggest it could fall to about 65%.

NETHERLANDS

The two main coalition parties – Christian Democrats (CDA) and Labour Party (PvdA) – are likely to be the main losers in the election. According to political scientists from the London School of Economics, the chief unknown will be the performance of Geert Wilders’ right-wing populist Party for Freedom (PVV). They predict that PVV will win three seats, but possibly more. The elections are being dominated by national issues, notably the economic and financial crisis and immigration policy, and the outcome will be seen as a vote for or against the government. Turnout is predicted to be around 30% - the same level as in 1999 when it was the lowest ever. Elections for community boards will be held next year and a general election in 2011.

POLAND

Five years after joining the EU, opinion polls confirm that Poles are very satisfied with membership. However, that does not mean they are interested in European elections. According to the latest Eurobarometer survey, only one in ten will definitely vote. This would represent the lowest national turnout across the EU. In 2004, it was 21%, the second lowest after Slovakia. The electoral campaign is very much focused on internal issues and forms part of a broader political conflict between the governing centre-right Civic Platform (PO) and the Conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party led by the Kaczynski brothers. According to polls, the former could take up to half the votes and the latter a quarter. The main issue is whether MEP and former Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek, running on the Civic Platform ticket, could become European Parliament president. He faces competition from Italian Mario Mauro. Civic Platform argues that electing their candidates will help elevate a Pole to among the EU’s most prominent jobs since it would then be one of the strongest national delegations within the EPP, currently the Parliament’s largest political group.

PORTUGAL

The Socialist Party (PS), in government since 2005, will try to defend the landslide victory it won in 2004, giving it half of the 24 Portuguese seats in the Parliament. Such a result is unlikely to be repeated. The economic crisis and general dissatisfaction could see the ruling party being punished at the polls. The elections are widely considered the first round in the local and national elections that should take place after the summer break. Its leader’s lack of charisma and the poor organisation of the main opposition party, the Social Democrats (PSD) – Commission President José Manuel Barroso’s political family – are the Socialists best allies. The ‘protest vote’ could benefit the more left-wing Communist Party and Bloco de Esquerda. The campaign has been dominated by national issues and by the government’s support for a second Brussels term for Barroso. This has been strongly criticised by many of the PS’s own candidates – a division the PSD is seeking to exploit.

ROMANIA

The Democrat-Liberal Party (PD-L) and the Social Democrat Party (PSD), which formed a coalition government under Emil Boc (PD-L) in December 2008, is still enjoying a honeymoon phase. According to a recent poll by the Centre of Urban and Regional Sociology, the PSD and Conservative Party Alliance would receive 30% of the vote, the Democratic Liberals 26%, the National Liberal Party (PNL) 19%, the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania 7%, the Greater Romania Party 7% and the independent candidate and younger daughter of Romanian President Traian Basescu, Elena Basescu, 4%. The campaign is expected to be dominated by debate over the response to the economic and financial crisis and by the future of the social assistance system, which is being hit by the current turmoil. The outcome may also give an indication of the possible outcome to the presidential elections, which will be held in November.

SLOVAKIA

Slovaks offer a paradox. According to Eurobarometer, only 16% say they will definitely participate in the elections (last time the figure was 17% - the lowest in the EU) and only 34% consider the elections to be important. Yet Slovaks also have one of the highest confidence ratings for the European Parliament. This year, they are being asked to go to the polls three times: two months ago they voted in the presidential elections and at the end of the year they face regional elections. The main government coalition partner – the left-wing Smer-SD party, led by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico – is expected to perform better than it did five years ago and could receive over a third of the vote. Its two partners, the Slovak National Party (SNS) and the Movement for Democratic Slovakia (HZDS), could also do well, with SNS, which is not currently represented in the European Parliament, picking up at least one seat. Unemployment, energy and the economic crisis are expected to be the main campaign issues.

SLOVENIA

Waning support for Prime Minister Borut Pahor, the border row with Croatia, tycoons’ wealth amid the economic crisis, controversy over post-Word War II mass graves and the rights of thousands erased from the lists of permanent residents after independence will influence voting in Slovenia. The polls are one obstacle to unblocking Croatia’s EU negotiations. But given broad backing for Slovenia’s tough line, candidates may only spar over who is best at protecting national interests. Other issues are more divisive, and one may get significant attention: MEP’s earnings, where envy will probably ensure a low turnout. Leading contenders for Slovenia’s seven seats are Pahor’s Social Democrats, ex-PM Janez Jansa’s centre-right opposition Slovenian Democratic Party, and one of four coalition partners, the Zares Party. MEPs Jelko Kacin, from the Liberal Democrats, and Alojz Peterle, from the non-parliamentary Christian party, New Slovenia, are favourites for re-election. Though how Slovenia will choose an eighth MEP under the Lisbon Treaty remains unclear.

SPAIN

The European elections will give Mariano Rajoy’s opposition People’s Party (PP) its first major opportunity to become the country’s leading political force since it lost power in March 2004. After the last European elections, the PP and Prime Minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) emerged evenly balanced with 24 seats each. But recent polls suggest the Socialists will lose several seats and the PP make gains. In a bid to shore up his government and tackle the economic crisis, Zapatero has reshaped his ministerial team. But recent results confirm that the wind is in the PP’s sails. The party performed unexpectedly well in regional elections in March. It defeated the PSOE in Galicia and the Socialists now rely even more heavily on the People’s Party in the Basque country. Zapatero returned to power last year by persuading the left to unite against the PP and with some regional support, which now appears to be disappearing.

SWEDEN

The only thing political parties in Sweden want to talk about when it comes to the elections is their excitement over campaign methods. This is going to be about Facebook, blogging and twittering as they all hope to emulate Obama’s success of campaigning through the social media. It is all being seen as a big rehearsal for next year’s parliamentary elections. Will the center-right coalition government succeed in beating the everlasting Social Democrats a second time? Or will the Social Democrats restore the normal order of Swedish politics for almost a century and return to power? If it was not for this political battle, very few Swedes would probably turn out to vote. Most people cannot name a single Swedish MEP, according to opinion polls, and less than 50% intend to vote. The obvious lack of excitement from the political establishment over European questions could, however, open chances for the new kids on the block: the youthful Pirate Party, defending their file-sharing rights, the anti-establishment Feminist Party, the xenophobic Swedish Democrats or even Irish Libertas, if they manage to find a candidate willing to run for them before June.

UNITED KINGDOM

The Labour government goes to the polls with the popularity of the party and Prime Minister Gordon Brown at almost all-time lows. The results will be carefully analysed to see if they give any clues to the general election, which must held within a year. Labour is not expected to fare well, but is unlikely to lose any seats and could win some, largely because it performed so badly five years ago. David Cameron’s Conservatives are looking to win back some of the dozen seats the UK Independence Party (UKIP) won in 2004. It remains to be seen whether their pledge to leave the largely federalist EPP will increase their popular support. Mainstream politicians’ overriding fear is that several British National Party candidates could be elected. The extreme right-wing party and UKIP are expected to poll 12-14% of the vote, but if their support is divided fairly evenly they could cancel themselves out and not gain a single MEP.