Social-Democrat Martin Schulz (Germany) is also expected to have his mandate renewed as president of the Socialist group – unless he decides to set his sights on the European Commission instead.

At this stage, Schulz has announced that, if he is elected in June, he will again stand for presidency of the PES. He knows that, in the event of a technical agreement with the EPP, he could then logically become president of the European Parliament in the second half of the legislature, from January 2012 to June 2014. A German member of the PES explained that, if the SPD delegation becomes the largest group in terms of number of seats – it is today in third place with 23 MEPs, behind the Spanish (24) and the French (31) – he does not doubt that Martin Schulz will remain leader. According to him, he has also contributed to making the group “more dynamic and influential” since 2004, when he took over the reins of the PES, succeeding Enrique Barón Crespo (Spain).

Others, however, fear that the leader has his eye on the position of commissioner, or even vice-president of the Commission. But the grand CDU-SPD coalition (Conservatives and Social-Democrats), currently in power in Germany, could break up during the federal elections at the end of September in favour of an alliance between the Conservatives and Liberals. Schulz would then lose the government’s possible support.

In the meantime, he appears to be the only candidate for the position of president of the PES group. Any alternative would be difficult to envisage. All the more so since it remains impossible to predict the results for the different national parties, especially in the context of the current crisis. The French are the largest delegation today. They could, however, see their number of seats fall in June, victims of the splits within the left in France. Pervenche Berès, chairwoman of the Committee on Economic Affairs, who is likely to be re-elected, could have been an alternative to the group presidency, except that her ‘no’ to the draft Constitution in 2005 still haunts her.

Among the other delegations, good results are expected for the Italians, who should make progress thanks to the rallying of the elected representatives from the Partito Democratico, previously scattered between the PES and ALDE. The Romanian Socialists could also be well placed.