The European Parliament currently has seven political groups: by size, the EPP-ED, PES, ALDE, UEN, Greens, EUL-NGL, Ind-Dem, plus the non-attached. This configuration is expected to evolve in the next Parliament as a result of new alliances, but also because stricter rules on setting up political groups will apply from June.

TORIES EXIT EPP-ED

The first big change concerns the group of the European People’s Party and European Democrats (EPP-ED), the centre-right majority group in the EP, with 288 members out of 785. The two main components of the ED part of the group, namely 27 British Conservatives and nine Czech ODS members, are set to bow out from 8 June to create their own Eurosceptic group. At least that is what William Hague, shadow foreign secretary in the UK, and Timothy Kirkhope, head of the Tories in the European Parliament, announced, on 11 March, to EPP-ED Chair Joseph Daul (France). Apparently, Daul has not yet received a formal letter confirming this departure.

The Tories have already threatened to leave on several occasions, even “raising the stakes,” according to one EPP-ED member. This time, however, they could make good their threat. Conservative leader David Cameron, who steers the party from London, can no longer put off his 2005 campaign promise, especially with general elections looming in the UK in 2010. Before being elected to head the party in 2005, he promised to take its MEPs out of the EPP-ED if his bid succeeded. Britain’s Conservative Party has never fully backed the group’s ideas, which is why it joined the ranks of the European Democrats, who are less avid supporters of further European integration.

For now, Daul says he regrets the decision of his fellow members, because “we have more areas of agreement than disagreement”. However, the Tories might end up divided at the last minute over leaving the EPP-ED, since some fear they may be too isolated. Leaving Parliament’s biggest group to form a Eurosceptic technical group that will probably be marginalised is not easy to accept. One Tory MEP says the aim is to set up a “centre-right” Eurosceptic group, ie one often voting with the EPP.

UEN AND IND-DEM IN DANGER

The loss of 27 British and nine Czech members would be a hard blow for the EPP-ED (which could go back to being simply the EPP). The gap between it and the Socialists would narrow, especially if the PES progresses from its current level of 217 members. It is virtually certain that members of Italy’s Democratic Party, which until now have been split between the Socialists and the ALDE Liberals, will all become part of the PES in June.

The EPP-ED should nonetheless secure reinforcements among Italian MEPs, following the recent merger of the National Alliance and Forza Italia into the People of Freedom party. The eight National Alliance members, who sit with the UEN (Union for a Europe of Nations), are expected to join their new allies in the Italian EPP-ED delegation. With one thing leading to another, however, the departure of the National Alliance would weaken the UEN, which is an ill-assorted mix of right and far-right parties. Its four Irish Fianna Fáil members will be leaving to join the more pro-European Liberals. The UEN could, therefore, cease to exist.

In any case, in its current form it would not survive the switchover to the new rules for forming a political group, which take effect after the elections. Although the UEN is Parliament’s fourth biggest group, its 44 members come from only six member states. Under the new rules, a group needs at least 25 MEPs from seven member states (see box). Nor would the Independence-Democracy Group, a technical formation with far-right members, exist in its current form since it has only 22 members from nine countries.

EUROSCEPTICS

The Tories and the Czech ODS members should be able to take advantage of this situation to find allies and meet the conditions for setting up a group. In the UEN ranks, they could also recover the ten or so ultra-Conservative members of the Polish PiS, the party of the Kaczynski twins. They may also pick up four Italian Northern League members who are, of course, Eurosceptics, but with xenophobic tendencies. On the Ind-Dem side, the handful of French sovereignists are potential allies, as are the Danish, Latvian and Lithuanian members. But it remains to be seen whether their parties will win seats. If so, the numbers would be right in terms of countries and members. A quick calculation even shows that the new group could be fairly large, possibly becoming the fourth biggest, but with members very close to the far right.

Since the Greens and the EUL-NGL (far left) are in no danger of fading away, the June elections could result in a six-group scenario: EPP(-ED), PES, ALDE, the new Eurosceptic group, Greens-EFA, EUL-NGL, plus the non-attached.

From June, it will take 25 members from seven member states to form a political group in the EP, compared with 20 members from six states now

New rules for setting up a group

From June, it will take 25 members from seven member states to form a political group in the EP, compared with 20 members from six states now. If a group drops below the minimum threshold, it can continue to exist until the following constitutive part-session, provided it still represents one-fifth of the member states and has existed for more than a year. This reform was agreed on 9 July 2008 in Strasbourg, when the European Parliament adopted the Richard Corbett (PES, UK) report by qualified majority (393 votes out of 785), since it is a change in Parliament’s rules of procedure.