Climate change will have a negative impact on most European regions - but not all will be affected in the same way. The European Commission published a climate change vulnerability indicator ⁽¹⁾ in November 2008 (see map). This shows that Southern Europe will be particularly hard hit. To determine the regions’ vulnerability to climate change, the Commission used indicators of demographic change, the risk of drought and the vulnerability of agriculture, fisheries and tourism based on expected changes in temperature and precipitation. It concluded: “Regions subject to the highest pressure are generally located in the South and East of Europe, the whole of Spain, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Malta and Hungary”. Most of Romania and certain Southern parts of France are also particularly vulnerable.

Changes in precipitation quantities (up to -70% in summer by 2070-2099 in the course of our children’s or grandchildren’s lives, in some Mediterranean regions, according to certain by no means extreme scenarios) and rising temperatures (up to plus 7°C in some Southern regions) are the two principal factors that will weaken economic sectors like agriculture (impact on agricultural yield, types of crops, production methods), fisheries (more vulnerable ecosystems) or tourism (how much longer will skiing be possible in the Alps?). Of course, the effects will be less severe in Central and Northern Europe, but the coasts of the North and Baltic Seas will nonetheless be particularly exposed to erosion, which will become more pronounced due to extreme weather events.

WHAT EFFECTS?

Overall, regions in Northern Europe will have less summer rainfall and more winter storms. Regions bordering the Baltic Sea will be faced with a greater risk of erosion due to more frequent and powerful storms. Atlantic areas will have more rainfall in winter and a greater risk of flooding, but drier summers and higher risk of coastal erosion. Mediterranean regions will be under threat of constant drought and occasional flooding.

These climatic developments will have consequences for human health. The most obvious, primarily affecting Southern Europe, will be a significant increase in mortality from heat waves. The Commission’s forecasts show that the number of deaths could be two to three times the present rate. While deaths in Northern Europe from cold weather will decline, fatalities across the continent due to changes in temperature are expected to rise by 36,000, to 86,000, by 2080, depending on the scenario. These figures do not include mortality from extreme weather conditions, such as floods and storms. Problems of available and safe drinking water coupled with an increase in vector-borne diseases in previously unaffected areas complete the picture.

The ability to respond to increasing health care demands will depend to a large extent on the level of health care infrastructure in a given region. There is little doubt this density is lower in Mediterranean Europe, precisely where the effects will be the most tangible, than in the North. Generally speaking, the South seems less equipped to face the challenges ahead. The vulnerability index developed by the Commission is clear: pressure will be strongest in regions where per capita GDP is low and which have lower adaptation capacity. Since climate change will have an impact on every region’s growth potential, new disparities risk emerging between the traditionally better and less well off.

For all regions, dealing with the effects of climate change will require major investments in combating and preventing drought, forest fires, coastal erosion, flooding and peak temperatures. Today’s choices, especially in terms of investment in infrastructure, will influence regions’ capacity to cope with the impact of climate change. Preparation is essential. The good news is that the different scenarios in the Commission’s study do not factor in adaptation measures. These could significantly reduce damage estimates. To cite one example, the economic cost of flooding in coastal zones, estimated at €18 billion in the hypothesis of a 50 cm rise in sea level, could be brought down to €1 billion a year if appropriate adaptation measures are taken in time.

For all regions, dealing with the effects of climate change will require major investments in combating and preventing drought, forest fires, coastal erosion, flooding and peak temperatures 
⁽¹⁾ ‘Regions 2020 – An assessment of future challenges for EU regions’ SEC(2008)2868