It is D-Day minus one for the much anticipated referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland, and the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ camps are putting their last efforts in the campaign. The definitive results will be know the day following the vote (on Friday 13 June in the afternoon) and in accordance with these results the next French EU Presidency will orientate its six-month term.

At the head of those opposed to the treaty stands the workers’ party Sinn Fein (four seats out of 166 in the Irish parliament), supported by the Libertas platform founded by a rich 40-year-old businessman and gathering influential businessmen, lawyers and teachers with liberal or neo-conservative leanings. It also includes a part of the Green Party, extreme left-wing NGOs and some political movements in the margins. They defend the ‘no’ “for a stronger Europe,” without hesitating to stir up arguments that are sometimes unfounded.

Citizens leaning toward the ‘no’ are, firstly, farmers who fear that the import into the EU of Brazilian beef will compete with their own exports. Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen, leader of Fianna Fáil (centre-right), has made pledges saying that he would use his veto in case of an agreement that is not acceptable for Ireland in the World Trade Organisation on the liberalisation of meat and milk imports. But some still see this as a biased promise. In spite of everything, a section of the farmers could vote ‘yes’ because they know that most of their revenue has come from EU funds since 1973. All the more so since the main farmers’ organisations, as well as the opposition party principally elected by these farmers (Fine Gael, Christian Democrats) are calling on them to vote ‘yes’.

“IF IN DOUBT, VOTE NO”

Other people fear that the Lisbon Treaty will lead to a standardisation of corporate tax, which would mean increased taxes for Irish companies which currently benefit from a low rate (around 12%). Even though the government makes every effort to explain that any decision on taxation requires unanimity from the 27 member states and Ireland has a veto right, concerns remain. Nor is the economic slowdown in Ireland, after 15 years of growth, comforting for this type of citizen.

Some believe Sinn Fein’s statements when it insists on the alleged loss of Ireland’s neutrality. An argument which works well even if it proves to be wrong since the European text stipulates in black and white that it will not affect Ireland’s historic position. Libertas reminds voters that their ‘no’ would also signal their refusal to lose the Irish commissioner, because the treaty foresees that the EU college is reduced to two-thirds the number of EU countries – commissioners of each member state will sit in the college according to a equal rotation system. It is written in the treaty, but this will only be from 2014 and this clause will be adopted unless the European Council decides unanimously that it wants otherwise.

A small fringe is also convinced that abortion – currently banned in Ireland by the constitution – could be legalised. A protocol ensures that the Irish constitution will not be affected on this matter. The Catholic Church itself has called on citizens to vote ‘yes’.

Finally, there are the undecided, who are uninformed about the EU and are not interested in changing the EU treaties given everything works well. These arguments have been stirred up in the British tabloid press in Ireland. Many posters have also invaded the roads in cities with slogans such as ‘If in doubt, vote no’.

“BY PATRIOTIC DUTY, VOTE YES”

On the other side of the fence, the ‘yes’ camp also has its methods of attack. On the posters, it says ‘Increase your opportunities, vote yes’ with the torso of a naked muscled man, responding to the idea of the mayor of London (“Voting Tory will cause your wife to have bigger breasts”). The three large parties are a unified front in the campaign in favour of the text. They are supported by the main unions, chambers of commerce and employers’ federations. MEPs have been to Ireland to promote the cause. The prime minister, who has been personally engaged in the battle, reminded his fellow citizens of their “patriotic duty” and to vote ‘yes’.

But nothing is certain yet. The latest Red C poll from 8 June has put the ‘yes’ in the lead, but the one published on 6 June in the daily The Irish Times (TNS MBBI poll) gave the ‘no’ vote the lead for the first time, with 35% of the votes against 30% for the ‘yes’. This has aroused concern everywhere in Europe. French Foreign Affairs Minister Bernard Kouchner dropped his reserve, stating that the first victims of a ‘no’ would be the four million Irish citizens themselves. The European Commission is trembling, but does not want to give a statement so as to not increase pressure on Ireland.

The memory of the rejection of the EU Constitution by France and the Netherlands in 2005 is on everyone’s minds, just like the initial ‘no’ to the Treaty of Nice in 2001. It had been followed by a ‘yes’ one year later on an emended text but today the situation has changed. In the case of a ‘no’, France, which assumes the leadership of the EU in the second half of 2008, will have to manage this crisis, reorientate its programme and find a solution. A decision would need to be made as to whether to abandon the Lisbon Treaty and stick with the Treaty of Nice or to continue ratifications by excluding Ireland or making it vote again on another text. The verdict is due out on 13 June.

To recall, Ireland is bound by its constitution to hold a referendum on EU texts. Fifteen member states out of twenty-seven have already ratified the Lisbon Treaty.

History of EU referenda

The practice of consulting the electorate on a major EU issue is not as rare as might at first seem. Over the past 36 years, referenda have been held on EU membership, the euro and treaty changes, especially in countries where any amendment to the constitution must be put to the public.

EU membership

France began the trend here, holding a referendum in April 1972 on whether new members should be allowed to join the then European Economic Community. On a 60% turnout, 68% said yes. Since then:

May 1972: Ireland. 83% for

Sept 1972: Norway. 53.5% against

Oct 1972: Denmark. 63.3% for

June 1975: UK (staying in the EEC). 67.2% for

Feb 1982: Greenland (staying in EEC). 52% against

June 1994: Austria. 66.4% for

Oct 1994: Finland. 56.9% for

Nov 1994: Sweden. 52.2% for

Nov 1994: Norway. 52.5% against

March 2003. Malta. 53.6% for

March 2003: Slovenia. 89.6% for

April 2003: Hungary. 83.7% for

May 2003: Lithuania. 89.9% for

May 2003: Slovakia. 92.4% for

June 2003: Poland. 77.4% for

June 2003: Czech Republic. 77.3%

Sept 2003: Estonia. 66.8% for

Sept 2003: Latvia. 67% for

Euro

Sept 2000: Denmark. 53.2% against

Sept 2003: Sweden. 56.1% against

Treaties

Single European Act

Feb 1986: Denmark. 56.2% in favour

May 1987: Ireland. 70% in favour.

Treaty of Maastricht

June 1992: Denmark. 50.7% against

June 1992: Ireland. 67.0% in favour

Sept 1992: France. 51% in favour

May 1993: Denmark. 56.8% in favour.

Treaty of Amsterdam

May 1998: Ireland. 61% for

May 1998: Denmark.55.1% for

Treaty of Nice

June 2001: Ireland. 54% against

Oct 2002: Ireland. 60% for

Constitutional Treaty

Feb 2005: Spain. 76.7% for

May 2005: France. 54.6% against

June 2005: Netherlands. 61.5% against

July 2005: Luxembourg. 56.5% for