The election of a pro-American French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, was greeted with sighs of relief in Washington last year as many believed he heralded the end of a painful period in Franco-American relations. But while the mood music has improved, with France soon assuming the EU Presidency there is a very real risk of transatlantic relations becoming soured by a series of niggling trade-related disputes. While Sarkozy has shown himself open to partnering with Washington more on military matters, his interest in removing regulatory barriers is not so evident.

“On the political side, we are in sync on many issues. The economic side will be the bigger challenge,” a US State Department official told Europolitics. A case in point is the EU’s REACH chemicals policy, where the US is complaining about the 1 December deadline for pre-registering chemicals with the European Chemicals Agency. “We are very nervous. Not all the companies can meet the deadline. The personal care product sector – soaps, creams etc – will be particularly affected,” he said. “We will be raising the matter with the French Presidency.”

Washington will also put pressure on the Presidency to remove the ban on US poultry exports that are cleaned using chlorine instead of drinking water. France has been one of the strongest voices in the EU defending the ban, which business groups estimate costs American exporters US$120-180 million a year in lost potential markets. Both REACH and the chlorinated chicken disputes are priority items for the Transatlantic Economic Council, the body set up in April 2007 to eliminate regulatory trade barriers and an initiative that Washington strongly supports. “We are pleased with what the TEC has done so far and would like it to continue to the next administration,” a State Department official said.

CAN TEC DELIVER?

But a question mark hangs over the French Presidency’s interest in the TEC, which was the brainchild of German Chancellor Angela Merkel from when she held the EU Presidency last year. According to Sally McNamara, transatlantic relations analyst at the Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington, “Sarkozy is very different to Merkel – he’s much less techy. The TEC will feature about 74th on his list of priorities,” she predicted. McNamara, a former aide to British Eurosceptic MEP Roger Helmer, was not convinced of Sarkozy’s pro-American credentials. “He has rejected anti-US rhetoric, but French foreign policy has not changed. On trade policy, for example, he is a protectionist,” she said. While the European Commission is officially in the driving seat for the TEC, in practice Commission Vice-President Günter Verheugen, who co-chairs it, needs strong backing from the EU Presidency to make breakthroughs on the most politically contentious dossiers. Verheugen received this from Chancellor Merkel, but neither the Portuguese nor the Slovenian EU Presidencies have been as resolute since then, the result being that some are starting to question the TEC’s ability to deliver results.

On military matters, Heritage’s McNamara said that the French Presidency’s desire to forge a common European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) – a key pillar of its agenda – was partly motivated by a desire to exclude America from European military decisions. “The US is not taking this threat seriously. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice favours further EU integration on defence, yet in reality the ESDP has meant no new men or money.” McNamara’s fears were not shared by another transatlantic policy expert, John K. Glenn from the German Marshall Fund (GMF). “The talk of a rivalling policy has faded. Everyone understands it has to happen in a complementary way. It is very difficult for me to see an EU defence capacity that has the ability to isolate or exclude the US,” he said. The arrival of a new occupant in the White House in 2009 will not change this dynamic regardless of who that person is, Glenn predicted. “Any new president will be grateful for any extra support Europe can give.”

DEFENCE AUTONOMY

The current US administration seems favourably disposed to France’s ESDP plans. “The weight of US opinion has shifted on this issue. We feel there is nothing to worry about. There is more than enough work to go round and there are no obstacles to the US assisting EU missions. The key is that there is coordination,” a State Department official said, mentioning Chad and Kosovo as examples. The real challenge, he felt, was to get Europe to increase its defence capability. EU countries devote on average just 1.3% of their gross domestic product to defence, whereas the US spends about 4% of its GDP on its military.

Looking farther afield on the global stage, Iran is likely to remain an important area of transatlantic diplomatic activity as Washington pushes the EU to adopt stiffer sanctions against Tehran. So far, President Sarkozy has appeared to be closer to the US hard-line policy towards Iran than his predecessor, former French President Jacques Chirac. The EU and US are likely to continue to cooperate harmoniously in helping to run Bosnia and will intensify cooperation in Afghanistan, where the EU has recently deployed a police training mission. Similarly, the transatlantic duo are likely to be singing from the same hymn sheet on Georgia, specifically in promoting its territorial integrity by continuing to oppose Georgia’s breakaway regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

On climate change, the replacement of the Bush administration in 2009 with one – be it a McCain or Obama team – that should be more in tune with EU policies makes any major developments under the French Presidency unlikely. There is one dossier, however, where the imminent departure of President Bush increases the probability of a breakthrough – the Visa Waiver Programme. With an eye on his legacy, Bush is keen to leave office having secured visa-free travel for America’s allies in Eastern Europe and his administration is pulling out all the stops to make this happen.

“Sarkozy has rejected anti-US rhetoric but French foreign policy has not changed. On trade policy, for example, he is a protectionist”