The pursuit of the Doha Round multilateral trade negotiations is giving a headache to France, which is worried that the talks will complicate its EU Presidency at the expense of its ambitious bilateral agenda and undermine its ability to defend best its interest at the World Trade Organisation. Although discussions in Geneva are making slow progress, Paris is now in the awkward position of having to deal with a decisive WTO ministerial meeting in July alongside EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson. “If talks drag on until July it will be bad news for us,” had predicted a French diplomat..

While efforts to salvage the round, launched in 2001, have been stepped up over the past few months, France is increasingly vocal against the continuation of the negotiations, pointing to the “imbalance” of the proposals on the table in Geneva. “It would be highly unrealistic to keep wanting to negotiate a deal where we haven’t received anything on services, nothing on industry,” said President Nicolas Sarkozy, on 20 June, during the EU summit in Brussels, slamming Mandelson’s push in favour of a deal. The commissioner and WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy, both in search of a legacy, are working hard to achieve a breakthrough by the summer that would allow the finalisation of a multilateral deal before US President George Bush leaves office at the end of this year.

Meanwhile, the French president challenged this calendar and stressed the concession made by Europe on agriculture, linking the Doha file to the current global food crisis. “Every 30 seconds a child dies of hunger and some people want to negotiate a deal that would reduce by 20% European farm production,” said Sarkozy, in a violent attack against Mandelson.

The rationale behind those vitriolic but timely comments is simple: bury the Doha Round while you can. French diplomats are nervous about the prospect of dealing with this sensitive file while they are in charge of the EU because they know it will not allow them to defend as strongly as they wish their position. Being in charge of the Presidency means building consensus and Paris therefore will not be in a position to confront directly the European Commission and free trade-oriented member states.

Paris, which will still have a voice at the Council table, now counts on like-minded member states to lead the resistance against Mandelson. “The Italians will do the job,” said a trade expert. Hence, the Italian government hailed the creation of a new ‘trade axis’ following the recent visit to Rome by Anne Marie Idrac, the French trade secretary of state. Many capitals, including Berlin, will not accept a deal without some further concessions from the emerging countries on goods and services. Several experts doubt the chances of achieving a breakthrough, stressing the lack of political will among leaders both in the developed and developing world. The key question remains whether the ‘make or break’ ministerial meeting scheduled on 21 July in Geneva will deliver any outcome. The last attempt, in July 2006, turned out to be a fiasco and the decision to convene such a risky meeting has been repeatedly postponed since May.

The stakes are high for the Presidency since a breakthrough on modalities during the summer would then lead to intense work during the second half of the year in order to finalise an agreement, leaving little room for advancing France’s ambitious bilateral trade agenda (see separate article). On the contrary, the freezing of Doha could boost talks with South Korea, Canada or the Gulf countries.

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS

Instead of Doha, Paris targets another multilateral trade deal during its Presidency: the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA). France sees the enforcement of intellectual property rights as a priority and would like to conclude as soon as possible this pact currently negotiated by the EU with the US, Japan and several key economic partners. Talks have just started and both France and the US administration would like to complete them in 2008. “This is not realistic,” believes a Commission source.