There will be many heavy hitters around the table of the European Council, on 11 February in Brussels, to discuss the future of the EU economy but some of the key players will be noticeably missing. China, India and Brazil - the so-called emerging giants - are posing one of the most pressing challenges to the future of the European economy and yet it is unclear whether EU leaders will put this factor at the heart of their future 2020 strategy. Only weeks after China took over Germany as the world’s biggest exporter - and upset the EU’s climate goals in Copenhagen - it remains to be seen whether any strategy to cope with the rise of the new economic powerhouses in Asia and Latin America will be part of the discussions at the informal summit convened by EU Council President Herman Von Rompuy.

Most of the proposals unveiled by European leaders ahead of the summit focus on greater economic coordination within the bloc but appear to pay little attention to its external strategy. The rise of China or India “is the background against which this brainstorming will take place,” a spokesperson for Van Rompuy told Europolitics. “We cannot ignore this factor, including the rise of unemployment here,” he added, recalling the large developing countries’ increasing competitiveness.

Most analysts agree that the emergence over the last decade of new competitive rivals has changed the rules of the global game. The financial crisis has accelerated the world economy’s drift towards Asia, with China becoming the engine of global growth. This trend will continue during the next decade, challenging further the position of European firms. The rise of these new competitors is increasingly seen in Europe as a threat to manufacturing jobs, raising concerns among policy makers and the public, who are tempted to protect further the EU market.

However, at this stage there seems to be no reason to expect trade policy - which is the most influential global tool at the disposal of EU institutions - to be on the agenda of the summit. The completion of the World Trade Organisation’s Doha round of international trade talks remains the EU’s mantra, notwithstanding that the negotiations have been stalled for years now. According to analysts, the key factors behind the lack of progress include the assertiveness of India and Brazil; China’s lack of involvement; and the US’ half-hearted support. It remains to be seen whether some EU leaders will call for a rethink of the European Commission’s trade strategy, with the objective of gaining more leverage against China or India. “We are not there yet,” commented an EU Council source.

The same applies to the global climate talks, where the EU failed to secure an ambitious deal in December, putting its industry at risk of competitive disadvantage. And yet, talks on an alternative strategy and possible adjustment measures to address Beijing or New Delhi’s ever increasing negotiating leverage are unlikely to be high on the agenda of the EU2020 strategy, which is to be endorsed in June.

Haiti presses on EU budgets

Haiti was a late addition to the summit’s agenda. All three of the main EU institutions have pledged their support to the recovery of the earthquake-hit nation and the Union as a whole has already donated more than 400 million euro. However, as the initial emergency phase ends, attention is turning to longer-term assistance and the modalities for achieving them. Medium-term challenges, which will need to be assessed, include preparing for the upcoming rainy season, particularly providing better shelter for the homeless, and follow-up medical care for those treated in the immediate aftermath of the disaster. The 11 February meeting will also look at the major priorities for even longer-term reconstruction and rehabilitation, which will notably include helping rebuild government functions.