Five years after the EU’s historic May 2004 ‘big bang’ enlargement, which brought ten new member states into the Union, and over two years after the January 2007 accession of Bulgaria and Romania, there is little enthusiasm in most European capitals for letting new countries join any time soon. Croatia is the one exception. A fairly broad consensus exists that this country of 4.5 million should be admitted to the EU in the near future, most probably in 2011 - although a more realistic date would be 2012, in light of Zagreb’s still unresolved border dispute with neighbouring Slovenia. The spat between the two countries started in 1991, when they declared independence from Yugoslavia. It has seriously hampered Croatia’s EU bid, leaving a question mark over the country’s ambitious plan to wrap up accession negotiations by the end of 2009.

As for the other Balkan countries, the prospects of EU accession are more remote. According to experts, the current member states’ fierce opposition to the Union’s further enlargement means that the countries of the Western Balkans may have to wait at least three or even five years before accession. They estimate that overall it could take more than ten years for the six countries of the region - Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia - to become fully-fledged EU members.

Probably the most complex case is that of Turkey, which alongside Croatia has been in accession negotiations with the Union since October 2005. Ankara’s membership bid is currently in a form of ‘suspended animation’, with roughly one third of the negotiating chapters being frozen over the long-standing ‘Cyprus issue’ or blocked by member states for various political reasons. Meanwhile, the leaders of the two most powerful member states - France and Germany - remain publicly opposed to Turkey joining the Union, advocating instead a ‘privileged partnership’. Experts say that Turkey’s entry into the EU is far from certain. If at all, it will take far more than ten years.

Also in the queue are Iceland and the northern part of Cyprus, which is a case in its own right. Both could join the EU before Croatia, if the stars allow. For the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is recognised internationally only by Turkey, reunification with the Greek Cypriot side is the key to full EU membership. Although Cyprus as a whole was admitted to the EU in May 2004, the acquis communautaire remains ‘suspended’ in the north of the island.

Iceland needs to build a national consensus on its EU membership bid. Once that’s achieved, this island nation could join the Union in a few years.

All in all, the EU’s enlargement is now an issue simmering on the back burner. It does not appear to have sufficient support among either the leaders or the broad public. The articles that follow examine the main causes of this growing ‘enlargement fatigue’ and include projections regarding the EU’s future expansion.