The EU’s enlargement policy has arrived at a crossroads following the failure to achieve full ratification of the Lisbon Treaty and after the eruption of what is seen by experts as the worst financial crisis in EU history. These two problems have triggered calls in certain member states for the Union’s expansion to be put on hold. Experts argue, however, that the current strong opposition towards enlargement has its roots elsewhere, namely in the bad legacy of the last expansion rounds of 2004 and 2007. The EU’s continuing difficulties with its new member states, Bulgaria and Romania in particular, are having a knock-on effect on its enlargement policy. Germany – once a strong supporter of expansion backed by France and the majority of the other old member states – says that the EU has not yet digested its last enlargement and therefore is not ready for the next one. Berlin argues that first a phase of internal consolidation is needed, meaning ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, before any new country, except for Croatia, can join the club.“The enlargement of the EU from 15 to 27 members within a few years […] has required great efforts. As a result, the CDU prefers a phase of consolidation, during which a consolidation of the European Union’s values and institutions should take priority over further EU enlargement,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU party said in its manifesto for the June European Parliament elections. “The only exception to the rule can be for Croatia,” the document added.

UNDIGESTED SHOCK

“Enlargement fatigue comes from the 2004-2007 enlargement rather than anything else,” Piotr Maciej Kaczynski, fellow researcher at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), said in an interview with Europolitics. “The current economic downturn and the delay in the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty only create further negative sentiments towards future enlargement,” he added. “The reason for this is that the 2004 and 2007 enlargements were a shock to the system. Not so much to the institutions, which have accommodated quite well to the change, but rather to the decision makers in the old member states,” Kaczynski explained. “The old member states realised that their own interests have been threatened by the fifth enlargement round,” which has brought twelve new policy makers with different agendas to the EU table, Vessela Tcherneva, head of the Sofia office and policy fellow of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) argued in an interview with Europolitics. The old member states were also confronted with pressure from the newcomers to shift their policies towards a not always desired more liberal approach, with the Services Directive at the forefront. “Now we have many more liberal governments, which are pushing their agenda in the Council. We did not have that some ten years ago,” Kaczynski said. “On the foreign policy front, we have now a completely different sensitivity towards Russia and Eastern Europe brought by the new member states than in the past,” he added. The scale of political challenges is so immense that although it has been five years since the ‘big bang’ enlargement, the EU seems to still struggle to fully digest it.

UNDONE HOMEWORK

Experts also point to another aspect – the undone homework. The new member states did not deliver on their promises and commitments after being admitted to the EU, exacerbating fears of further enlargement, according to Kaczynski and Tcherneva. “Bulgaria and Romania go beyond the digesting problem the EU is having with the 2004 enlargement round. Especially Bulgaria,” said Kaczynski. “The accession of Bulgaria is perceived as an example of a mistaken enlargement policy,” he added.In practical terms, the poor performance of the 2004-2007 newcomers has prompted the EU to adopt a tougher negotiating stance towards the aspiring countries. Unlike in the case of Poland, the EU is pushing Croatia to modernise its shipbuilding sector before accession. To avoid making the same mistake as in the case of Bulgaria, the EU is strongly insisting on Zagreb to reform its judicial and police systems as well as to enhance the fight against organised crime and corruption before entering the EU. Badly affected by the ‘Cyprus issue,’ which had not been resolved before the 2004 enlargement, the EU is reluctant to let Croatia and Macedonia move to the next stage of integration before solving their bilateral rows with neighbouring countries, Slovenia and Greece, respectively.

POSITIVE BALANCE SHEET

Meanwhile, the enlargements of 2004 and 2007 qualify in economic terms as a ‘major success’ and a ‘win-win situation’ for both the new and the old member states and the EU as a whole, according to the European Commission’s enlargement anniversary report, issued on 20 February. The report gives a very positive overall assessment of the last two waves of enlargement. According to the document, the 2004-2007 expansion “greatly boosted the economies and improved living standards in the new member states”. Income per capita in the twelve countries rose, according to the report, from 40% of the fifteen old member states’ average in 1999 to 52% in 2008. It is also estimated that enlargement boosted economic growth in the new member states by about 1.75 percentage points per year over 2000-2008. Economic progress achieved by the new member states, accompanied by reforms in the rule of law and justice areas, brought in turn benefits to the old members through new export and investment opportunities. The fifteen old member states currently sell 7.5% of their exports to the new member states, up from 4.75% a decade ago. The document points to the fact that new investment opportunities created by the last two waves of enlargement helped enterprises in the old member states to strengthen their global competitiveness and safeguard jobs at home. It emphasises that, contrary to some somber predictions, incoming workers from the new member states “have helped meet labour market demands and reduce bottlenecks” in the old member states, “without creating major labour market disturbances”. Since 2004, until the current financial crisis truly broke out, there was a robust 1.5% annual growth in employment in the new member states – which went alongside continuous job creation in old member states, about 1% per year.However, the economic achievements of the 2004-2007 enlargements go largely unnoticed in the old member states. Even though German exporters have flourished by selling to the new member states, 63% of Germans, according to an Eurobarometer survey, think that enlargement is making Europe as a whole less prosperous.