The EU’s new policy for promoting renewables sets an overall binding 20% share of energy from renewable sources by 2020. Additionally, a binding goal of 10% of renewable energy – in theory not just biofuels – has been given for the transport sector. While some member states may have difficulty meeting their individual targets, ranging from Malta (10%) or Luxembourg (11%) to Sweden (49%) and Denmark (30%), the EU as a whole should meet or come close, to its target. Aside from these short-term implementation problems, the EU will soon need to outline how it will push renewables even further.

NEW FRAMEWORK

In addition to setting individual targets for the share of renewables in each member state, the RES Directive (2009/28/EC) significantly improves the legal framework for promoting renewable electricity. It lays down compulsory national action plans, with a standard template, so as to set out clear and realistic pathways for renewables development. It also introduces cooperation mechanisms whereby countries can help each other achieve their targets more cost effectively. It sets sustainability criteria for biofuels to count towards the 10% renewable transport fuel target. Member states have till the end of 2010 to implement the directive.

Renewables, however, will increasingly be analysed, in terms of the future development towards 2050. A first element may be an examination by the European Commission of how to overcome existing barriers to renewables. The European Parliament will certainly be the driving force for a largely carbon-free energy sector by 2050. MEPs have already expressed their wishes in terms of future policy in a February 2009 report by Anne Laperrouze (ALDE, France).

The report was a response to the Commission’s November 2008 ‘Second strategic energy review’. Here, MEPs called for more ambitious energy targets, with a proposal to make energy efficiency legally binding (see separate article). Ideas included, by 2050, a 35% improvement in energy efficiency and a 60% share of renewable energy. MEPs are also pressing for tougher targets for reducing CO ₂ emissions by at least 80% in 2050.

WITH OR WITHOUT NUCLEAR

The future for renewables is tied in to EU debates about other low-carbon technologies. If nuclear energy expands its role and carbon capture and storage (CCS) advances significantly, then the role of renewables would be less. Already conflicting studies are landing on policy makers desks. Electricity industry association Eurelectric foresees just 38% of total EU power generation coming from renewables in 2050, up from 15% in 2005. The EU renewables sector, with some 450,000 jobs and worth over €45 billion in annual turnover, aims much higher. Together with Greenpeace, it suggests some 56% of primary energy demand could be covered by renewables by 2050. This is around 88% of electricity generation.