When the freshly elected Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced, on 7 September, a new ambitious target in CO ₂ emission cuts for his country, it triggered a sigh of relief in Brussels and among the NGOs that are pushing for a far-reaching climate deal at the Copenhagen conference. Following his historic election victory, the leader of the Democratic Party of Japan pledged a 25% reduction in CO ₂ emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. This new figure, in line with the proposal put forward by the EU and close to the recommendations made by the UN, represents a dramatic increase from the 8% cut proposed until last summer by the previous government, led by the Conservative Prime Minister Taro Aso. The EU welcomed the renewed engagement of the world’s second largest economy. Meanwhile, environmentalists expressed hope that it would bring a new impetus to the global climate talks and convince the US to make a move.

Two months later, the enthusiasm has vanished and expectations for a binding agreement in Copenhagen appear to have eroded. Japan’s new pledge did not trigger a positive response at the time, especially not in the US. Moreover, several experts are raising doubts about Tokyo’s capacity to deliver on its promise, against the backdrop of persistent slow economic growth. “Their target is too ambitious. I doubt that they can achieve it,” Professor Jeongin Kim from South Korea’s Chung-Ang University told Europolitics. He points out that the Japanese economy is already the most energy efficient in the world and therefore the room for improvement is limited. It would require huge efforts from an economy struggling to recover from the global downturn with a record level of public debt.

DOMESTIC POLITICS

Japan fears a repetition of the scenario of the Kyoto Protocol negotiations held in 1997, where it had committed to over-ambitious targets in emission cuts. As the host nation, Japanese negotiators were requested to make an extra effort to reach a global deal. They accepted to take the year 1990 as a reference date for calculating emission cuts. This decision benefited EU countries, such as Germany or the UK, at the expense of the Japanese economy, which is still struggling to meet its Kyoto targets. According to the independent German institute IRW, Japan is today the fifth biggest emitter of CO ₂ and has seen an 18% growth in its emissions since 1990.

This time, domestic politics could be responsible for another over-ambitious pledge. Experts believe that Hatoyama’s spectacular announcement was primarily political. In the aftermath of his election victory, the leader of the centre-left seized the climate issue to demonstrate his difference with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which had run the country almost without interruption since World War Two.

The new centre-left government is likely to face stiff resistance from powerful corporate groups, which are wary of any additional burden that could jeopardise their competitiveness against South Korean, European or Chinese firms. “Japanese business does not support the government position and it is strong enough to resist Hatoyama,” believes Kang Hee-Chan from the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul. The lack of commitment by the big emerging countries, such as China and India, is also a concern for Japanese firms.

Domestic pressure and the absence of an ambitious commitment from the US, China and India could lead Japan to backtrack just ahead of Copenhagen. At the end of October, the government hinted that it could lower its target by stressing that the 25% was conditional on other countries also signing up to ambitious emission goals. “I want to go ahead with this pledge, but the government announced it with a precondition at the United Nations climate change summit in September, so of course it could change,” said Environment Minister Sakihito Ozawa. Such a move would be a blow for the EU, which sees Japan as a key ally and counts on Tokyo to provide important financial support to developing countries as part of a global deal.

The Japanese economy is already the most energy efficient in the world and therefore the room for improvement is limited