In early November, Chinese authorities triggered artificial snow over Beijing in a bid to temporarily clear the sky over one of the most polluted capitals in the world. This spectacular operation epitomises what most EU representatives think of China’s position in the international climate talks: well-publicised efforts that do not address the root causes of global warming. The frustration of European negotiators is likely to last long beyond the Copenhagen conference, since China enjoys widespread support among emerging Asian nations around one key argument: developed countries, namely the EU and the US, are responsible for the rise in global temperature and therefore should pay the climate bill. At a time when the centre of gravity of the global economy is moving towards the Far East, the post-Kyoto talks are a golden opportunity for emerging Asia to assert itself and challenge the West.

GROWTH

Despite repeated calls from the EU, China (which is the biggest emitter of CO ₂ in the world with 20% of world emissions), India and the ASEAN bloc refuse to make any binding commitment to curb their emissions. This is a matter of principle for them. During their latest summit, held in late October in Hua Hin (Thailand) leaders from the South-East Asian bloc stressed rich countries’ “historical responsibility”. They urged the developed nations to make “deeper and early cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions” and to avoid any measures that could “negatively affect the sustainable economic and social development of developing countries”. The statement brings to the fore one fundamental belief shared by all leaders from emerging Asia: economic growth should remain the top priority for the next decade and efforts to mitigate global warming should not be made at the expense of increasing the GDP and living standards of their populations.

The equation is particularly critical in the aftermath of the global economic downturn, which is putting into question the long-term prospects of many export-driven Asian economies. Last spring, the Chinese leadership launched a massive stimulus package to make sure that the annual economic growth rate would remain above 8%. Such growth is seen as critical to creating enough jobs and wealth in order to avoid the risk of major social unrest in the country. Grey clouds of pollution have become familiar features in most Asian-Pacific megalopolises. They are an unwelcome consequence of the extraordinary economic success the region has achieved in recent decades. Yet, leaders across the region believe further economic growth is needed to support their development.

‘GREENING’

However, ‘green’ awareness is growing fast among policy makers and public opinion across the region and the shift towards a new economic model less harmful to the environment has started. Here again, China is taking the lead in order to deflect international criticism and address growing domestic demand. The authorities see pollution increasingly as a major social issue that could endanger the country’s political stability. Beijing’s stimulus package gives an unprecedented importance to renewable sources of energy.

In order not to be isolated on the world stage, Beijing has been following a skilful proactive negotiating strategy ahead of Copenhagen. Only days before the opening of the conference, it announced it would aim to reduce its “carbon intensity” by 40-45% by the year 2020, compared with 2005 levels. Carbon intensity, China’s preferred measurement, is the amount of carbon dioxide emitted for each unit of GDP.

At the UN General Assembly in New York, in September, President Hu Jintao promised “notable” emission cuts but without giving a figure. He pledged to increase massively the size of Chinese forests and boost nuclear or non-fossil fuels to 15% of power by 2020. The speech was described as “constructive” by the European Commission. “The Chinese are more open than the Indians, who are sticking to a principled position,” a source close to President José Manuel Barroso told Europolitics. Beijing does not want to be seen as a deal breaker and is likely to make fresh proposals during the conference in Denmark in order to prove its good faith, while avoiding the key demand from the EU side, namely a target figure to curb CO ₂ emissions. “The Chinese are very good at making last-minute proposals that make them look good without responding to the request of their partners,” an EU diplomat based in Beijing told Europolitics.

TACTICS

Indeed, the majority of experts are convinced that neither China nor India will this year meet the EU’s key demand. Such an assessment leaves almost no chance of a binding deal in Copenhagen. “The Chinese will show some flexibility, but will not agree to any cap on CO ₂. They do not want to jeopardise their economic growth,” says Kang Hee-Chan from the Samsung Economic Research Institute. As a matter of principle, they want both the US and the EU to assume first their responsibility and put some money on the table to support the ‘greening’ of developing economies. Emerging Asia will request as much technology transfer as possible from Europe and the US in the environmental field in return for progress on a post-Kyoto agreement, observers predict. This process could take years.

In the long run, Asian leaders know they need to ‘green’ their economy, but they refuse any binding timetable being imposed on them at the moment and they want the West to support them financially, many experts believe. “It will take at least five years for China and India to join a binding agreement,” predicts Kim Jeongin, professor at Chung-Ang University in Korea. In Copenhagen, Asia will signal its readiness to ‘go green’ - but only at its own pace.

“China and India will not accept a binding commitment in Copenhagen”