The rise in global temperatures brings with it new potential for transport through Arctic waters. The opening up of the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage could reduce shipping days and help transport natural resources extracted in the Arctic back to Europe. However, along with the potential for intercontinental and resource transport, there are many risks. These include the economic and technological viability of transport through the Arctic, the impact on the environment and indigenous communities, and political and territorial disputes with Arctic states. As such, any EU Arctic policy must effectively cover transport routes to reflect the Union’s trade and resource interests.

Currently, the Northern Sea Route has better potential for transport than the Northwest Passage. The latter is not expected to become a viable trans-Arctic route before 2020 since it varies considerably according to seasonality and ice conditions. A lack of infrastructure, inadequate charts and high insurance costs also diminish its possible use. However, the situation may change in the future and it is important the EU has a clear position in case this occurs.

The Northern Sea Route is considered better for transport. Shipping oil from the Russian Arctic to Europe is now both technically and economically feasible with current flows of more than 1.5 million tonnes per year. There are problems, however, since Russia has adopted certain standards, such as inspections and high transit fees, for vessels operating in the area, which go beyond international rules. It would be in the EU’s interest to negotiate these with Russia, either bilaterally or internationally. In Arctic shipping there is the additional problem of very little commercial or government salvage and ship repair response capacity. This is a matter of concern to the maritime insurance industry and may hinder the use of new transport routes.

ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS

Certain environmental factors must also be taken into account. The risk of hazardous chemicals released into and inside the Arctic through long-range transport is very real and the EU Council of Ministers has already encouraged the European Commission to present a work plan on the issue. Furthermore, there is a danger of introducing alien species and pathogens through the discharge of ballast water and hull fouling, which could upset the delicate Arctic ecosystem. To protect the Arctic environment as a whole, the Council of Ministers has encouraged member states to support initiatives in the International Maritime Organisation and other conservation bodies. Any Arctic policy must also take into account the effects of transport on the indigenous population. Transport may provide job opportunities and economic growth, but it also risks disturbing traditional ways of life through pollution and disruption of local ecosystems. Adequate measures must be taken to ensure the concerns of native populations are heeded when exploiting new economic possibilities.

As regards territorial issues, Arctic navigation is currently governed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which allows innocent passage to ships wishing to travel through Arctic waters that are not the internal waters of any sovereign state. There is some dispute, however, on what can constitute internal waters. For example, Canada considers many of the Arctic waterways involving the Northwest Passage as part of its internal waters. The EU and the United States both dispute this claim, asserting that these are international. The growing importance of the Arctic thus risks placing increased strain on the EU’s relations with its long-time partner. Disputes such as these must be settled to guarantee EU interests in the region and it may be necessary to revisit the UNCLOS to achieve this. In addition to Canadian claims, disputes with Russia may also arise over Arctic navigation and the future use of ports. A united position through the EU’s Northern Dimension policy could help ensure good cooperation with Moscow. In a paper to the European Parliament and the Council, the Commission called for the establishment of a Northern Dimension partnership in the field of transport and logistics. Without an autonomous EU policy on the Arctic, it may prove difficult for the EU or its individual Arctic states to assert their right to the use of Arctic transport routes in the future.

For now, Arctic transport is predicted to be more destination-based to supply local communities and for the transporting of resources back to Europe rather than intercontinental shipping. It is important the EU has an active role to play here in order to promote economic growth and ensure the Arctic’s sustainability. However, in time the opening up of new sea routes should be foreseen and adequate policy measures put in place to ensure the EU’s interests are met. Many Arctic states already have a clear policy towards territory and shipping and this may have an effect on EU transport interests. Without a policy of its own, the EU may risk falling behind when it comes to the economic potential of the Arctic.