An agreement seems to be on the table on the nominations for the two high-level EU positions that will be created by the Lisbon Treaty: the Conservatives will take the permanent presidency of the European Council and the Social Democrats the high representative for foreign policy.

The official line from Swedish Prime Minister Frederik Reinfeldt is that the subject of candidates has not been broached at the summit of 29-30 October in Brussels as “we do not yet have enough clarification on the Czech ratification to launch consultations” (see separate article). But discussions are taking place in the wings. The EPP and the Social Democrats are said to have decided how to divide the spoils. One source close to French President Nicolas Sarkozy (centre-right) confirmed that the future head of EU diplomacy, who would also be vice-president in the European Commission, could be a Socialist: “The president of the Commission is EPP, so it would be an asset to have a complementary rather than a redundant profile for the high representative”.

The Socialists, for their part, seem to have few qualms about sacrificing their best-known candidate for the permanent presidency, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Interviewed on the margins of the European Council, Germany’s Martin Schulz, the leader of the Socialist group in Parliament, explained that “Blair is a good candidate but a controversial one as he has divided Europe in the past,” at the time of the Iraq war. “He was the closest European leader to George Bush and that created opposition towards him.” Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Zapatero did not hold back from criticising him either. The most important thing for the Socialist family seems to be to get the position of high representative. A delegation made up of Zapatero, the head of the Party of European Socialists, Denmark’s Poul Nyrup Rasmussen and Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann will continue to negotiate with the EPP on this point.

POTENTIAL TICKETS

The Socialists have already drawn up a list of six potential candidates: former French Minister Elisabeth Guigou, Germany’s former Foreign Affairs Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, current British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, Romanian MEP Adrian Severin, former Austrian Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer and Italy’s former Foreign Affairs Minister Massimo D’Alema.

However, four names seem at first sight to be implausible. The high representative will also be a member of the Commission. France, Germany, Austria and Italy have all already chosen their commissioner and they are all from the Conservative camp. Therefore, unless these countries decide to change their choices to make room for a Socialist, only two names should emerge from the list: Miliband and Severin. However, it is difficult to imagine the EU giving such a post to a representative from a new member state without a tradition of diplomacy – even if Severin was foreign affairs minister and a respected member of the Convention. David Miliband could therefore be the favourite.

According to the same EPP-PES agreement, the European Council presidency would go to a Conservative from a small country (to make up the balance). That would exclude Tony Blair, Finland’s former Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen, former Irish President Mary Robinson or the EU Ambassador to the US, Ireland’s John Bruton. That therefore leaves Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, his Luxembourg counterpart Jean-Claude Juncker (who seems to have served more to neutralise Blair) and Latvia’s ex-President, of no political grouping, Vaira Vike-Freiberga. Austria’s ex-Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel can also be added to the list, though his former links with the far right’s Jörg Haider may hurt his chances. The name of the Belgian Liberal Guy Verhofstadt could end up being pulled out of the hat at the last minute even if he is not EPP. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that they “would support the same candidate when the time comes”.